Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[bagelman]

The 2018 midterms under a less 'controversial' Republican president:



Senate Rs — 56 (+5)
Senate Ds (including Sanders and King) — 44 (-5)



R governors — 30 (-3)
D governors — 20 (+4)

Dr. Mehmet Oz (R-PA)/Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) 274 (46.7%)
President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/VP Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 264 (50.2%)

Underestimate unbeatable titan Sherrod Brown at your own peril. Republicans would be held to a measly 55 seats.

[bagelman]

Scenario where the final vote count in New Mexico, not verified for Gore until November 30th, decides the election. Voters are redistributed, Florida is decided by many thousands of votes and isn't much closer than Ohio but New Hampshire is flipped. Gore's margin is also boosted a little in Iowa.

OTL numbers would of course give Gore the win, but this assumes no foul play...

[bagelman]

Here's my version of the same:

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

The Wallace campaign is far more successful, as shown by a narrow victory in Maryland. A handful of Democratic electors in the northeast conspire to back Nixon to avoid a hung college which could benefit the segregationists. The conspiracy succeeds and Nixon is elected President, though I admit I don't know the electoral college laws as they were back then.

This is based on applying the former CSA's result for the 1968 election to the entire country.

[bagelman]

I used https://tonymoo2228.github.io/StatesFun/ to "unpack" California and New York, to give Biden the most number of states I could while sorting Trump states by margin. Large populations and their cities are teleported across space to their new states. Screenshot of new state layout. Wyoming no longer exists.

[bagelman]

Incumbent president Hillary Clinton is defeated as Americans chafe under what they see as overly restrictive quarantine measures.

[bagelman]

A Worse 2016:



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Romney wins in 2012



McCain wins '08



McCain wins in '04



(all of these are separate timelines of course)

[bagelman]

After picking Barry Goldwater as his running mate, Vice President Nixon would run a front porch campaign from his new residence in New York. He ran a moderate and reassuring campaign promising to be a third term of Ike. Kennedy dominated TV, and most believe he would have won if it were not for the new proportional system in place for 1960. As for Goldwater, he was more mobile than Nixon and generally campaigned in the south, and clashed directly with LBJ in Texas.

[bagelman]

Cover of something I found on reddit and DeviantArt. A second American civil war occurs after 2028, led by Trump Jr, with the Republicans creating a state similar to the CSA with downright Nazi characteristics.

2036 is won by Katie Porter (D-CA) against Dan Crenshaw (National Union Party-South Texas), in the first election without the electoral college.

[bagelman]

The former CSA votes just the same as the rest of the nation, very narrowly Humphrey with only about 8% for Wallace. Nixon wins similar to OTL 2000.



The rest of the country votes like the former CSA actually did at the same time, turning Wallace into a northern independent candidate disliked in the deep south.

[bagelman]

While 2 states (AZ and KS) were below R+1, the tipping point state of Iowa was R+11. The Green Party still needed more time to appeal to middle America, they would need Bernie Sanders to do so, who believe it or not would be seen as a more moderate candidate than Nader.


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Al Gore was the most outspoken candidate on global climate change, a key issue in the election. Thus he was the best candidate to win moderates, keep moderate Democrats in line, and probably the only candidate who had any shot at winning Texas or New York in this election. Both states were must-win for Nader to even have a shot.

As for the Republican party, their best performance regarding actual voters was in Wyoming with just under 6%. The Republicans, or the Anti-Democracy Party, continue to fight a losing battle against direct voting for President, continuing to argue that the president must be indirectly elected by the people's representatives, not through the people themselves. Only three states still support this system. With the nomination of Al Gore, the Republicans saw an opening with those who still disbelieve in the idea of anthropomorphic climate change, attempting to win over the most right wing Democrats. However even strongly conservative voters are increasingly protective over the right to directly vote for the President or for Senators, so climate change "skeptics" held their noses for Gore.

[bagelman]

snip.

Was there an equation that got you these results, like you did for the 1968 maps above?

Using Gore vs. Nader as an example

First I post everything in a spreadsheet, then

Bush result * (Nader total/Bush total)

Nader result * (Bush total/Nader total)

Compare to Gore result and other third parties.

The columns in the spreadsheet are

A: state (the 3 without Nader on ballot removed)
B: actual Gore result
C: actual Bush result
D: actual Nader result
E: others
F: same as B (for convenience)
G: equation to get new Bush results
H: equation to get new Nader results
I: same as E (for convenience)
J: total of f:i
K: f/j
L: g/j
M: h/j

[bagelman]

Closest state: DE



Closest state: MD

Closest Perot state: LA



Closest states: NH, WY, MO, ID, HI, NY, WA, PA, ND

[bagelman]

Forgot this last one:



Closest Gore states: AL, GA, CA

Strongest Gore states: TN, NM, MD

Closest Perot states: MA, VA, AR

[bagelman]

Clearwater (R-MO) narrowly defeats the upstate New Yorker Nation (D-NY).

[bagelman]

In this scenario I inverted the margins of all demographics in 538's 2024 calculator, resulting in a 68-30 GOP landslide where Dems only win Vermont and Maine (excluding ME-2). I then shifted the overall margin to either D+52 or D+53, Ohio being the deciding state.

However the GOP still win the PV even if they lose Ohio and the election. At D+54, South Dakota flips, followed by NJ at D+55, NE statewide at D+59, Missouri at D+60, and that's around where Democrats would actually win the popular vote.