PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Too many people in the race, Fetterman is gonna win based on splitting the vote in Philly

This is the Marquee race of this Election, if D's lose this race it's over, but in a 3.5 D they wont

Even in Philly I think he'll get respectable numbers. So yeah, I don't want to jinx it (because he is one of my two favorite candidates along with Charles Booker) but I do think he probably has it in the bag. I also think he'd be the favorite in the general, winning with Biden's map and slightly cutting into Republican margins in rural PA.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I can’t wait for the hideous fallout if democrats loose this election.

Why, other than Fetterman pulling a gun on a Black jogger, because he is a white male and he appeals to the WWC in Middle Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs?

The Dems look foolish with the "should we nominate the white guy or the person of color, or etc." Identity politics shouldn't be the No. 1 criteria.....

Kenyatta win the nomination and looses
"This is what the democratic party gets for nominated a gay black leftist!!!! Burn the progressive branch!"

Fetterman wins the nomination looses
"See!! The neoliberal (!?) old generic "woke" establishment white guy shtick cost us a seat again! Burn the establishment wing!"

both claims are incredible overgeneralizations but I could see something similar being thrown around

Fetterman isn't establishment though - he's also positioning himself as part of the progressive wing (admittedly, with a blind spot on environmental issues), and in his past campaigns he's always been an insurgent candidate / he has poor relationships with party leadership. The establishment mantle would be held by whomever of Dean / Houlahan / Lamb runs; Arkoosh is also running as a more typical establishment candidate but not sure how much of a player she'll be.

As for the general election liability question - I agree Fetterman is a huge one. Not because he's "establishment" or "leftist" (or because he's white, obviously), but because he's trying to appeal to a group of voters (Obama-Trump WWC) that is largely gone for the party, while taking positions / stylizing himself in such a way that could alienate the more important demos (Philly-area POC + suburban voters). Not saying those voters won't like him by and large, but if their turnout is down even a little, or even a small portion swings against him, that's game over in this extremely close state.

I don't think how he stylizes himself would be a turnoff to working class POC voters. One thing that I found annoying about the politico piece was the baked in assumption that suburban white voters are generally looking for the same thing in a candidate as black or hispanic voters. The jogger incident may cost him black support and understandably but otherwise I don't think that his blue collar populist appeal would be a turnoff to working class voters of any race.