Toss-up. Bevin isn't looking good in the polls.
The average polling (adjusted) based on my assessment:
Bevin: 46%
Bashear: 44%
MOE +/- 3
My official prediction for the election:
Bevin (R, inc.) - 49%
Bashear (D) - 47%
What are you talking about ? There is only one recent public poll about the race and both candidates were tied and considering that KY polls usually overestimate democrats I don’t understand why you consider this race as toss-up
I excluded some polling from D affiliated pollsters. Bashear should be competitive, but I still think Bevin as the incumbent will prevail.
Poll
