How many states would Kanye West win in 2020?

[Senator Spark]

Explain. I have him winning 5 states (California, Oregon, Washington, Maryland, and Hawaii, along with D.C.)

[Senator Spark]

In a primary or a general election?

Both.

[Senator Spark]

I presume he would run as an Independent, so none.

For theoretical purposes, say he runs as a Democrat and is able to win the nomination.

[Senator Spark]

In a primary, it depends on the mood of the Democrats, as well as who else is running. If they can rally around a progressive, or a center-left candidate who is at least palatable to the progressive wing of the party, he probably won't get very far, and won't win any states (or possibly 1-3 early caucus states.) If the field is fractured, and there's a lot of anger among Democratic voters, and they want to give the establishment a middle finger, he could win many contests, and it's anyone's guess which ones he might win. I'd imagine the industrial parts of the Midwest, as well as Appalachia will be the toughest regions for him.

In a general election, it would come down to how popular Trump is. If Trump's approval ratings are at least decent (45% or higher), he'd win easily, though several states would never vote for him (the ones you mentioned as well as Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, ME-01, and I still doubt Connecticut or Rhode Island would go Republican.) If Trump is quite unpopular, but not extremely so (~40% approval rating), it'd probably be a close race, with the map looking similar to how it did this year. If Trump's approval rating is more like 30% or lower, then Kanye probably wins, with something like 10-15% of all voters voting third party.

Nominating Kanye would be a terrible move for Democrats, and I could never stomach voting for someone like him, but considering how polarized this country is, a lot of people still would, especially if he ended up being the only alternative to Trump. The idea of him winning seems absurd, and it's certainly not likely, but those saying that Kanye has no chance in a primary or general election clearly learned nothing last year.

I absolutely agree with you for once. I think if Trump is popular he can pull off NY, ME-01, CT, RI, & IL would be toss-up.

[Senator Spark]

If he wins the nomination, 15+ for sure. If he was able to successfully sell himself to the Democratic apparatus, he'd get at least 43% in the GE. The country is too polarized for him to lose in a true landslide.

What would him garnering 43% look like?

[Senator Spark]

If he wins the nomination, 15+ for sure. If he was able to successfully sell himself to the Democratic apparatus, he'd get at least 43% in the GE. The country is too polarized for him to lose in a true landslide.

What would him garnering 43% look like?

I'm not entirely sure, but if he's popular enough among Democratic voters to win the nomination in the first place, I imagine that he'd get at 187 EVs:

I don't think he'd do worse than the above map.

This. But I'd flip CT or RI.