2020: The GOP at a Crossroads

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Prologue:
On November 8th the GOP's worst nightmare came true, Hillary Clinton won in an landslide. This time however the landslide win brought down many GOP Senators, and Representatives. The Party was at a true crossroads, some claimed that Trumps policies were winning policies and he lost on his rhetoric alone. While others wanted the GOP to go back to it's Conservative roots. A shrinking faction wanted the party to return to the Pre Goldwater days, feeling the only way to win was with more Centrist policies. While a small but growing faction wanted the party to become more libertarian.



Here is the 2016 Results

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 404 EV 56.8%
Donald Trump/Rick Perry 134EV 41.5%

Senate

New Senate Standing after 2016 Senate Elections
Democrats 56 (includes 2 Senators Caucusing with Democrats)
GOP 44
House of Representatives
Democrats 223 Seats
GOP 212 Seats

Governors
 

GOP 29
Democrats 20

[Pragmatic Conservative]

 Prologue continued  

115th Congress (Leadership)
Speaker of the House: Nancy Pelosi
House Leader: Steny Hoyer
Majority Whip: Xavier Becerra
Minority House Leader: Kevin McCarthy
 Minority Whip: Steve Scalise
Majority Leader of the Senate Chuck Schumer
Assistant Majority Leader (Majority Whip): Elizabeth Warren
  Minority Leader in the Senate John Cornyn
Assistant Minority Leader (Minority Whip): Mike Crapo
Mitch McConnell announces his plan to retire from Senate Leadership January 2017 and retire from the Senate in December of 2017.

Cabinet (all Confirmed), Clinton chooses to keep many of the Current Cabinet on
Secretary of State: Harry Reid
Secretary of the Treasury: Patty Murray
Secretary of Defense: Ashton Carter
Attorney General: Jim Hood
Secretary of the Interior: Sally Jewell
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Harkin
Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker
Secretary of Labor Thomas Perez
Secretary of Health and Human Services Sylvia Mathews Burwell
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro
Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx
Secretary of Energy Barbara Boxer
Secretary of Education Tammy Baldwin
Secretary of Veterans Affairs Kristin Beck
Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson

Loretta Lynch is appointed and Confirmed by the Senate to the Supreme Court.

2017 Gains and losses
2017 offered an excellent opportunity for the GOP to make major gains by holding on to the New Jersey Governorship, gain the Governorship and Senate seats in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Washington and possibly pull an upset in the NYC Mayoral Race.    

Governor-New Jersey

Primary GOP
Kim Guadagno 40%
Thomas Kean, Jr 38%
Randy Brown 22%

Democratic Primary
Richard Codey 35%
Ray Lesniak 32%
Philip D. Murphy 27%
Robert Russo 6%

General
Richard Codey 55%
Kim Guadagno 43%
Other 2%

Virginia- Governor

Democratic Primary
Ralph Northam 52%
Gerry Connolly 48%

GOP Primary
Ed Gillespie 60%
Corey Stewart 40%

General
Ed Gillespie 52%
Ralph Northam 45%
Other 3%

Virginia Senate  
Democratic Primary
Mark Herring (Incumbent)  acclaimed

GOP Primary
Eric Cantor 37%
Rob Wittman 35%
 Bill Bolling 18%
Pete Snyder 10%

General
Mark Herring 51%
Eric Cantor 48%
Other 1%

NYC Mayoral
Democratic Primary
Bill de Blasio 85%
Assorted minor candidates 15%

GOP Primary
Scott Stringer 55%
 Bo Dietl 30%
Michel Faulkner 10%
Assorted minor Candidates 5%

General
Scott Stringer 50%
Bill de Blasio 47%
Other 3%

Wisconsin Senate
Ron Johnson and  Mary Burke were both Acclaimed in their Primaries
General
Mary Burke R 55%
Ron Johnson D 43%
Other 2%

Washington Senate
Primary
Cathy McMorris Rodgers R 49%
Jim McIntire D 47%
Others 4%

General
Cathy McMorris Rodgers R 51%
Jim McIntire D 49%

(+1 GOP in the Senate, no change in Governorship's)
 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

John Gregg won Indiana in your scenario.  Did the Dems pick up any seats in the statehouse?

Yes, Districts 4, 11, 12,19, and 84,

[Pragmatic Conservative]

(I will go through each state in alphabetical order with Senate and Governor elections, showing results) 
Prologue Continued
2018 Midterm Time

Alabama
Governor -Robert J. Bentley is term limited and can not run again

Republican Primary
Kay Ivey 40%
Roy Moore 39.9%
Bradley Byrne 14.1%
Mary Scott Hunter 6%

Democratic Primary
Craig Ford 57%
Pete Johnson 43%

General
Kay Ivey 57%
Craig Ford 40%
Other 3%
R-Hold

Alaska
Governor- Bill Walker runs again

Democratic Primary (Walker wins nomination, chooses to run as an independent) 
Bill Walker 80%
Other  20%

Republican Primary
Dan Sullivan 58% (former Anchorage Mayor)
Russ Millette 42%

General
Bill Walker 51%
Dan Sullivan 45%
Other 4%
I-Hold

Arizona

Senate-Jeff Flake running for Re-Election
Republican Primary
Jeff Flake 55%
Joe Arpaio 45%

Democratic Primary
Phil Gordon 72%
Other 28%

General
Jeff Flake 50%
Phil Gordon 47%
Other 3%
R-Hold

Governor-Doug Ducey running for Re-Election

Republican Primary
Doug Ducey 88%
Other 12%

Democratic Primary
 Richard Carmona 90%
Other  10%

General
Doug Ducey 49%
Richard Carmona 48%
Other 3%
R-Hold 

Arkansas

Governor-Asa Hutchinson running for Re-Election
Republican Primary
Asa Hutchinson 82%
Other  18%

 Democratic Primary
Darrin Williams 53%
Pat Hays 44%
Other  3%

General
Asa Hutchinson 55%
Darrin Williams 43%
Other 2%
R-Hold

California

Senate-Dianne Feinstein Running For Re-Election
Primary
Dianne Feinstein 55%
Kevin McCarthy 25%
Duf Sundheim 15%
Other 5%

General
Kevin McCarthy 51%
Dianne Feinstein 49%
R-Gain

Governor-Jerry Brown Term limited
Primary
Kevin Faulconer R 25%
Carly Fiorina R 18%
 John Chiang D 15%
Gavin Newsom D 15%
Eric Garcetti D 13%
Alex Padilla D 10%
Other 4%

General
Kevin Faulconer 55%
Carly Fiorina 45%
R-Gain

More States are coming

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Midterm Results Continued
Colorado
Governor- John Hickenlooper Term limited

Democratic Primary
Joseph García 60%
Michael Hancock 40%

Republican Primary
Cory Gardner 50%
Tom Tancredo 30%
Scott Gessler 20%

General
Cory Gardner50%
Joseph García 45%
Other 5%
R-Gain

Connecticut- Dannel Malloy Declines to run for Re-Election

Democratic Primary
  George Jepsen 55%
Nancy Wyman 43%
Other 2%

Republican Primary
Joe Scarborough 35%
Themis Klarides, 33%
Thomas C. Foley 32%

General
George Jepsen 53%
Joe Scarborough 45%
Other 2%
D-Hold

Senate- Chris Murphy Runs for Re-Election

Democratic Primary
Chris Murphy 89%
Other 11%

Republican Primary
 Linda McMahon  83%
Other 17%

General
Chris Murphy 60%
Linda McMahon   38%
Other 2%
D-Hold

Delaware
Senate-Tom Carper Running for Re-Election

Democratic Primary
Tom Carper Acclaimed

Republican Primary
Jeff Cragg 88%
Other 12%

General
Tom Carper 68%
Jeff Cragg 30%
Other 2%
D-Hold

Florida
Senate-Bill Nelson Runs For Re-Election

Democratic Primary
Bill Nelson 65%
Alan Grayson 35%

Republican Primary
Allen West 35%
Allan Bense 30%
Vern Buchanan 28%
Other 7%

General
Bill Nelson 54%
Allen West 44%
Other 2%
D-Hold

Governor-Rick Scott Term Limited

Republican Primary
 Marco Rubio 57%
Will Weatherford 41%
Other 2%

Democratic Primary
Bob Buckhorn 58%
Gwen Graham 39%
Other 3%

General
Bob Buckhorn 51%
Marco Rubio 48%
Other 1%
D-Gain

Georgia
Governor- Nathan Deal Term Limited

Republican Primary
Casey Cagle 47%
Austin Scott 45%
Other 7%

Runoff
Casey Cagle 52%
Austin Scott 48%
Democratic Primary
Kasim Reed 82%
Other 18%

General
Casey Cagle 49%
Kasim Reed 47%
Other 4%

Runoff
Casey Cagle 51%
Kasim Reed 49%
R-Hold

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Hey, listen. I like the idea of your timeline, but you kind of need an editor. For example, Fiorina won 42% against Feinstein. How would Faulconer not swamp her with like 65%+ of the vote?

Very interesting races so far. I see Arizona is trending Democratic in this timeline, and a Republicans, for once, did well in California. I agree, in a Fiorina-Falconer runoff, Falconer would easily win. Nearly all Democrats would certainly view him as the lesser of two evils. He's popular in his home city of San Diego, where he runs and rules as a moderate Republican, and even appears at LGBT pride events. Fiorina, who is way more conservative, would easily get crushed (especially after being chosen as Cruz's running mate). Also, how did McCarthy win? Did the R vs. R governor runoff drop Democratic turnout? Did Feinstein make a gaffe or have her popularity nosedive? I also wonder what will become of California's top-two system later on in this TL. Also, no way Putnam is not elected governor in Florida. I also think Bill Nelson retires for health reasons. But, it's not my timeline, and I guess some distance from reality is good. Great job, by the way!

As for the Califirnia Senate race, McCarthy got assisted by low turnout from Democrats, as well as a great campaign versus a poor campaign  from Feinstein (where she commits some gaffes). As for the Govrenors race I agree I should have gone with the original margin I had in mind which was 60-40 Falconer.  Thanks for enjoying it so far.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Midterm Results Continued

Hawaii
Senate-Mazie Hirono running for Re-Election

Democratic Primary
Mazie Hirono Acclaimed

Republican Primary
 Charles Djou  89%
Other 11%

General
Mazie Hirono 68%
Charles Djou  32%
D-Hold

Governor- David Ige running for Re-Election

Democratic Primary
David Ige 93%
Other 7%

Republican Primary
David Chang 79%
Other 21%

General
David Ige 60%
David Chang 35%
Other 5%
D-Hold

Idaho
Governor- Butch Otter Retiring

Republican Primary
Lawrence Wasden 55%
Brad Little 43%
Other 2%

Democratic Primary
David H. Bieter 80%
Other 20%

General
Lawrence Wasden 55%
David H. Bieter 43%
Other 3%
R-Hold

Illinois
Governor- Bruce Rauner Running for Re-Election

Republican Primary
Bruce Rauner 88%
Other 12%

Democratic Primary
Dick Durbin 92%
Other 8%

General
Dick Durbin 53%
Bruce Rauner 45%
Other 2%
D-Gain

Iowa
Governor- Terry Branstad Retiring

Republican Primary
Kim Reynolds Acclaimed

Democratic Primary
Michael Fitzgerald 50%
Jeff Danielson 43%
Other 7%

General
Kim Reynolds 56%
Michael Fitzgerald 41%
Other 3%
R-Hold

Indiana
Senate-Joe Donnelly running for Re-Election

Democratic Primary
Joe Donnelly Acclaimed

Republican Primary
Greg Ballard 58%
Mike Delph 42%

General
 Greg Ballard 53%
Joe Donnelly 46%
Other 1%
R-Gain

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Iowa
Governor- Terry Branstad Retiring

Republican Primary
 Chuck Grassley Acclaimed

Democratic Primary
Michael Fitzgerald 50%
Jeff Danielson 43%
Other 7%

General
Chuck Grassley 56%
Michael Fitzgerald 41%
Other 3%
R-Hold

Grassley will kind of be 85 at that point. His grandson, Pat, would be more likely.

I see Grassley finishing his term, then retiring from politics altogether. Kim Reynolds will probably succeed Branstad as governor. Maybe Pat Grassley goes for Lieutenant Governor?

I will change Grassley with Kim Reynolds. Thanks for the feedback.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Would their be someone that would be interested in helping make some county maps for some of the close races?

Midterm Results Continued
Kansas
Governor- Sam Brownback Term Limited
Republican Primary
 Steve Morris 55%
 Kris Kobach 45%

Democratic Primary
Joshua Svaty 60% (Dropped out on September 1st endorsed Greg Orman)
Jill Docking 40%

General
Greg Orman 51%
Steve Morris 48%
Other 1%
I-Gain

Main
Senate- Angus King running for Re-Election as a Democrat

Democrat
Angus King 62%
Matthew Dunlap 38%

Republican
Paul LePage 64%
Steve Abbott 36%

General
Angus King 50%
Paul LePage 44%
Other 6%
D-Nominal Gain

Governor-Paul LePage term limited

Republican Primary
 Bruce Poliquin 51%
Michael Thibodeau 49%

Democratic Primary
Mark Eves 54%
Chellie Pingree 46%

General
Mark Eves 52%
Bruce Poliquin 45%
Other 3%

Maryland
Senate-Ben Cardin Retiring

Democratic Primary
Elijah Cummings  57%
 Martin O'Malley 43%

Republican Primary
Michael Steele 55%
Barry Glassman 45%

General
Elijah Cummings 58%
Michael Steele 40%
Other 2%
D-Hold

Governor-Larry Hogan running for Re-Election

Republican Primary  
Larry Hogan Acclaimed

Democratic Primary
Tom Perez 89%
Other 11%

General
Larry Hogan 52%
Tom Perez 47%
Other 1%
R-Hold

Massachusetts
Senate-Elizabeth Warren running for Re-Election

Democratic Primary
Elizabeth Warren Acclaimed

Republican Primary
Gabriel E. Gomez 88%
Other 12%

General
Elizabeth Warren 55%
Gabriel E. Gomez 42%
Other 3%
D-Hold

Governor- Charlie Baker Running for re-election
Republican Primary
Charlie Baker 91%
Other 9%

Democratic Primary
 Maura Healey 51%
Marty Walsh 49%

General
Charlie Baker 53%
Maura Healey 44%
Other 3%
R-Hold

Michigan
Senate-Debbie Stabenow running for re-election

Democratic Primary
Debbie Stabenow Acclaimed

Republican Primary
Saul Anuzis 54%
Candice Miller 46%

General
Debbie Stabenow 55%
Saul Anuzis 43%
Other 2%
D-Hold

Governor- Rick Snyder Term limited
Republican Primary
Justin Amash 53%
Brian Calley 47%

Democratic Primary
Debbie Dingell 45%
Gretchen Whitmer 40%
Mark Hackel 15%

General
Justin Amash 51%
Debbie Dingell 47%
Other 1%
R-Hold

[Pragmatic Conservative]

As the midterms are just part of the prologue to save time I will just finish the Midterms with a map, and below  I will list the winners for both the senate and Governor races.

Senate

Minnesota Amy Klobuchar over Julie Rosen 55-43
Mississippi Roger Wicker over Brandon Presley 53-45
Missouri Peter Kinder over Claire McCaskill 52-47
Montana Jon Tester over Denny Rehberg 49-47
Nebraska Deb Fischer over Steve Lathrop 57-40
Nevada (Dean Heller retiring) Brian Sandoval over Dina Titus 51-46
New Jersey (Bob Menendez retiring) Ray Lesniak over Chris Christie 55-43
New Mexico Susana Martinez over  Martin Heinrich 50-48
New York Kirsten Gillibrand over George Maragos 67-30
North Dakota Wayne Stenehjem over Heidi Heitkamp 52-47
Ohio Sherrod Brown over Rob Portman 50-48
Pennsylvania Bob Casey, Jr. over Mike Turzai 51-49
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse ran unopposed
Tennessee Bob Corker over Park Overall 59-39
Texas Ted Cruz over Julian Castro 57-40
Utah (Orrin Hatch retiring) Jon Huntsman, Jr. over Scott Howell 64-33
Vermont (Bernie Sanders retiring) Peter Shumlin over Phil Scott 57-40
Virginia Ed Gillespie over Mark Herring 51-48
Washington Maria Cantwell over Bill Bryant 56-44
West Virginia Joe Manchin over Bill Cole 52-45
Wisconsin Mary Burke over Mark Andrew Green 54-44
Wyoming John Barrasso over William Bryk 69-31


Senate Standings
GOP 51 (+6)
Democrats 49 (-6)

House Standings
GOP 237 Seats (+25)
Democrats 198 Seats(-25)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Governors

Minnesota Mark Dayton over Steve Sviggum 54-40
Nebraska Pete Ricketts over Chris Beutler 57-41
Nevada Joe Heck over Ross Miller 50-48
New Hampshire Colin Van Ostern over Chuck Morse 51-47
New Mexico Gary King over John Sanchez 52-46
New York Andrew Cuomo over Carl Paladino 55-40
Ohio Mike DeWine over Tim Ryan 51-47
Oklahoma Mary Fallin over M. Susan Savage 54-45
Oregon Kate Brown over Dennis Richardson 52-46
Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf Retiring) Mike Stack over Jim Cawley 53-46
Rhode Island Gina Raimondo over John Robitaille 40-35
South Carolina Henry McMaster over Gerald Malloy 56-43
South Dakota Matt Michels over Mike Huether 58-40
Tennessee Beth Harwell over Andy Berke 57-42
Texas Greg Abbott over Mike Villarreal 56-42
Vermont Sue Minter over Randy Brock 50-41
Wisconsin Chris Larson over Scott Walker 51-48
Wyoming Ed Murray over Pete Gosar 57-40

Governor Standings
Republicans 25 Governorship's
Democrats 23 Governorship's
Independent 2 Governorship's  

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Congressional Leadership January 2018
Speaker of the House: Paul Ryan
House Leader:Steve Scalise
Majority Whip: Patrick McHenry
Minority House Leader: Steny Hoyer
 Minority Whip: Xavier Becerra


Majority Leader of the Senate John Cornyn
Assistant Majority Leader (Majority Whip): Mike Crapo
  Minority Leader in the Senate Chuck Schumer
Assistant Minority Leader (Minority Whip): Elizabeth Warren



Special Senate Elections and Initial Betting Markets

Here are Special Election Results or Who is appointed to these seats, for seats that became vacant from 2016-2018

Kentucky-Mitch McConnell resigns his Senate seat officially on December 31st 2017, Thomas Massie appointed to USA Senate on January 3rd 2018.

Special Election November 6th 2018:
Thomas Massie defeats Greg Fischer 55-43
R-Hold

Colorado-Cory Gardner leaves the seat vacant upon election to Governor of Colorado, Cynthia Coffman appointed to USA Senate. Special Election scheduled for November of 2019.


Illinois-Dick Durbin leaves the seat vacant upon election to Governor of Illinois, Lisa Madigan appointed to USA Senate. Special Election scheduled for November of 2019.

Betting Markets

Democratic nomination
Hillary Clinton 85
Elizabeth Warren 7
Other 8

GOP nomination
Tom Cotton 32
Ben Sasse 22
Rand Paul 17
Tim Scott 10
Nikki Haley 8
other 11

Winning Individual
Hillary Clinton 55
Republican Nominee 44
Other 1

I will post some background info on major legislation next as well as  Candidate Campaign Kickoff speeches . Any questions or  comments are welcome.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Major Legislation Passed and Court Cases from 2016-2019
-On February 20th 2017 Clinton signed into law a bill mandating universal background checks on all gun purchases as well as a ban on purchasing guns for anyone on the terror watch list. 
-A revised version of the Dream Act was signed into law by Clinton on March 30th 2017
-On September 17th 2017 the Federal Budget was signed by Clinton, it had a slight tax increases for those making more then $250,000 a year, lowered income tax by 1% for those making less then $50,000 a year. The Budget also increased the Federal minimum wage to $12.50  by December 31st 2018 and $15 by December 31st 2019.
-On March 3rd 2018 The fourth Circuit Court struck down South Carolina's 20 week Abortion Ban.
-June 10th-The 8th Circuit upholds Arkansas 20 week Abortion Ban. 
-June 15th The 7th Circuit upholds Wisconsin's right to work law.
-On August 5th the USA Supreme Court agrees to here an appeal to the fourth Circuit courts decision regarding the 20 week abortion ban.
-On September 25th Clinton signs the federal budget into law, the budget institutes $1,000 for every student that attends University and families household income is below $50,000.
-November 19th 2018, the 4th Circuit Court strikes down Virginia's right to work law.
 
   

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Tom Smith as the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania Governor? If it's this guy (from the 2012 Senate race), he's dead. Unless he lives until at least November 2018 in this timeline, you should change it to Jim Cawley (Corbett's LG) or someone. It wouldn't matter too much, since Republicans lost that race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Smith_(Pennsylvania_politician)
Also, interesting that Tester survives, as does Sherrod Brown, who wins even as DeWine wins the governorship. Also, in Illinois and Colorado, wouldn't the incoming governors appoint their replacements, and not the old governors?

I will fix those, it was my understanding that the outgoing Governor appointed the new Senator in that case, regardless I will leave the senators who were appointed as is, it wouldn't affect the senate standings either way. Thanks for the feedback.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Tom Smith as the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania Governor? If it's this guy (from the 2012 Senate race), he's dead. Unless he lives until at least November 2018 in this timeline, you should change it to Jim Cawley (Corbett's LG) or someone. It wouldn't matter too much, since Republicans lost that race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Smith_(Pennsylvania_politician)
Also, interesting that Tester survives, as does Sherrod Brown, who wins even as DeWine wins the governorship. Also, in Illinois and Colorado, wouldn't the incoming governors appoint their replacements, and not the old governors?

I will fix those, it was my understanding that the outgoing Governor appointed the new Senator in that case, regardless I will leave the senators who were appointed as is, it wouldn't affect the senate standings either way. Thanks for the feedback.

I enjoy reading (and writing) timelines. I know that the two appointees basically cancel each other out, but why would Gardner and Durbin appoint people of the opposite party? Also, the special elections would be in 2019, not 2017.

I will change those.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Chapter 1: The Campaign begins 2019

January 30th 2019, New York NY

Today Hillary Clinton officially kicked off her Re-Election Campaign, focusing on the governments strong handling of the economy, tougher gun control initiatives as well as comprehensive immigration reform. Clinton has a slight favorably rating and looks like an early favorite for Re-Election.

February 15th 2019, Houston Texas

Ted Cruz officially launched is second run to the White House. Cruz  focused on the large national debt and the 2 straight deficit budgets proposed by Hillary Clinton, promising to balance the budget by 2024. Cruz also promised to get an Constitutional Amendment passed allowing states to decide abortion policy, as well as amending the Dream Act.  

March 3rd 2019,Louisville Kentucky

Rand Paul Kicked off his campaign in Louisville. Paul focused on the need to focus on more diplomatic foreign policy, the institution of a flat tax, as well as the repeal some of the Patriot Act. Paul wants to end the ban on gun sales for those on the terror watch list.

March 15th 2019 Boston Massachusetts
 
Charlie Baker kicked off his campaign representing the
moderate wing of the GOP. Baker by far ran the most Pro Business and status quo campaign when it came to the issues. Baker proposed reforming the terror watch list, lower taxes on small businesses, instituting a small carbon tax to help fund infrastructure projects, as well as Balance the Budget by 2024.

March 28th 2019,Charleston South Carolina

Scott pledged to push for amendments to both the Dream Act and Affordable Care Act. Scott also proposed passing a 20 week abortion act, however stated he would respect the Supreme courts decision on South Carolina 20 week Abortion Ban, and would not push for a Constitutional Amendment on abortion.

April 3rd 2019, Santa Fe New Mexico
 
New Mexico Senator Susana Martinez kicked off her campaign on the promise to focus on balancing the budget, commit to solving the national debt crisis. Martinez called the immigration reforms of the Clinton campaign as settled law, as well as the issue of Abortion.    

April 15th 2019, Madison Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton will face a major primary challenger after all. Feingold pledged to run a true  progressive campaign. Feingold pledged that if elected he would introduce universal health care , pass legislation that would break up the big banks. Feingold pledged to expand the university tuition credit. While viewed as a major underdog, most pundits refuse to entirely rule out Feingold  winning the Democratic primary.

I will post primary polls and schedule next post.  

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Chapter 2: Preview of the Primary

May 1st-primary polls (Average)

Democratic Primary National
Hillary Clinton 50%
Russ Feingold 35%
Undecided 15%

Democratic Primary Iowa
Hillary Clinton 45%
Russ Feingold  42%
Undecided 13%

Democratic Primary NH
Hillary Clinton 47%
Russ Feingold 40%
Undecided 13%

Democratic Primary Nevada
Hillary Clinton 52%
Russ Feingold 37%
Undecided 11%

Democratic Primary South Carolina
Hillary Clinton 58%
Russ Feingold 30%
Undecided 12%

Republican Primary National
Tim Scott 25%
Rand Paul 23%
Ted Cruz 17%
Susana Martinez 15%
Charlie Baker 9%
Undecided 11%

Republican Primary Iowa
Ted Cruz 25%
Rand Paul 20%
Tim Scott 18%
Susana Martinez 12%
Charlie Baker 7%
Undecided 18%

Republican Primary NH
Tim Scott 22%
Rand Paul 20%
Susana Martinez 19%
Charlie Baker 13%
Ted Cruz 10%
Undecided 16%

Republican Primary Nevada
Susana Martinez 23%
Tim Scott 21%
Rand Paul 20%
Ted Cruz 15%
Charlie Baker 10%
Undecided 11%

Republican Primary South Carolina
Tim Scott 39%
Ted Cruz 19%
Rand Paul 13%
Susana Martinez 11%
Charlie Baker 10%
Undecided 8%

Schedule (Unless otherwise noted, all primaries are for both parties, the only Caucus is Iowa)
February 3rd Iowa Caucus
February 11th NH
February 18th Nevada
February 22end South Carolina  
March 3rd Super Tuesday Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Tennessee, Minnesota
March 7th Kansas,Louisiana, Maine
March 10th Mississippi, Idaho, Hawaii
March 17th Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, Arizona, Wisconsin
March 31st Wyoming,Utah, North Dakota
April 7th New York
April 14th Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, Delaware and Washington DC
April 21st Washington,Oregon, Colorado and Alaska
April 28th Indiana
May 5th West Virginia and Nebraska
May 12th Kentucky
May 19th Oklahoma and Texas  
June 2end Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, New Jersey and California

Rules:The Democrats will be using similar rules as 2016 except requiring super delegates to vote for the winner of their state on the first ballot. Super delegates are free to vote for whoever they want on the second ballot.

The GOP voted to switch their delegate rules to be similar to the Democratic rules, with a 10% viability threshold required to win delegates.

Both Parties have abolished Caucuses except for Iowa.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Nice. I love this timeline.

Thanks!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Kentucky Governor Primary Elections

Republican
Matt Bevin 85%
Other 15%

Democrat
Alison Lundergan Grimes 53%
Greg Fischer 44%
Other 3%

Polling Average June 1st
Matt Bevin 43%
Alison Lundergan Grimes 40%
Undecided/Other 17%

Illinois Senate Primary

Democrat
Lisa Madigan Acclaimed

Republican
Mark Kirk Acclaimed

Polling Average June 1st
Lisa Madigan  45%
Mark Kirk 42%
Undecided 12%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

June Update

June 10th-USA Supreme Court agrees to hear an appeal from the State of Virginia over the states right to work law that had previously been struck down by the  4th Circuit Court.

June 15th- Just 9 years after most campaign finance regulations are struck down by the Supreme Court  Oregon Governor Kate Brown signs a law that ban's corporate and union donations for political campaigns. Conservative groups announce they will challenge what they call a blatantly unconstitutional law in federal court.

June 23rd-Ruth Bader Ginsburg announces her impending retirement from the court upon a successor being chosen.  

June 25th-Colorado held a Senate Primary today with the following results:
Republican
Cynthia Coffman 88%
Other 12%

Democrat
 John Hickenlooper 91%
Other 9%


June 27th- In a 6-3 decision the USA Supreme Court strikes down South Carolina's 20 week Abortion Ban, effectively ending any restrictions on abortion.  In response Cruz  announces the need for a constitutional amendment restricting Abortion. Meanwhile the remaining candidates suggest that it is time to move on to other issues.  In the aftermath of the decision Ted Cruz surged to nearly 40% in Iowa and 30% nationally, however this did not last.  President Hillary Clinton calls the ruling a major victory, while VP Tim Kaine added he felt the issue of abortion was settled law.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Why didn't James Comer run in Kentucky?

James Comer like other considered a primary Challenge, however largely declined due to Bevin s large Fundraising advantage and his strong approval ratings with Republicans. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

(Do you want me to publish updates on the day to day camping events or just Debate recaps and results nights)

July Update
July 7th-Vermont passes a bill restoring much of the Campaign Finance restrictions that were struck down by the Supreme Court in 2010. Conservative groups pledge to fight this bill in court.

July 12th-California Bans the Death Penalty today the previous attempt to do so failed by just 15,000 votes in 2016.

July 17th-Tammy Baldwin unexpectedly resigns from Cabinet, a few days later she would endorse Feingold  a few days later. Clinton selected Former Senator Bernie Sanders as Education Secretary, he was confirmed by the senate a few days later.

July 23rd-  In a debate watched by millions Russ Feingold  was seen as the big winner in the Democratic Primary poll, Feingold  bashed Clinton on reversing on her pledge to pass campaign finance reform, Obama Care reform. Feingold  touted his progressive agenda, gaining praise by many across the country.

July 30th-In the first GOP debate, Susan Martinez was seen as the winner, however most  pundits noted Cruz had a good night along with Rand Paul.

Polling Update next  

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Polling Averages-August 1

August 1st-primary polls (Average)

Democratic Primary National
Hillary Clinton 45%(-5)
Russ Feingold 40% (+5)
Undecided 15% (-)

Democratic Primary Iowa
Russ Feingold  49%(+7)
Hillary Clinton 40%(-5)
Undecided 11%(-2)

Democratic Primary NH
Russ Feingold 42% (+2)
Hillary Clinton 41% (-6)
Undecided 17% (+4)

Democratic Primary Nevada
Hillary Clinton 45% (-7)
Russ Feingold 41% (+4)
Undecided 14% (+3)

Democratic Primary South Carolina
Hillary Clinton 55% (-3)
Russ Feingold 33%(+3)
Undecided 12%(-)

Republican Primary National
Ted Cruz 24% (+7)
Susana Martinez 21%(+6)
Tim Scott 20% (-5)
Rand Paul 20%(-3)
Charlie Baker 7% (-2)
Undecided 8%(-3)

Republican Primary Iowa
Ted Cruz 31% (+6)
Rand Paul 22% (+2)
Tim Scott 15% (-3)
Susana Martinez 14%(+2)
Charlie Baker 6%(-1)
Undecided 12%(-6)

Republican Primary NH
Susana Martinez 25%(+6)
Tim Scott 20% (-2)
Rand Paul 17% (-3)
Ted Cruz 12%(+2)
Charlie Baker 11% (-2)
Undecided 15%(-1)

Republican Primary Nevada
Susana Martinez 30%(+7)
Ted Cruz 20% (+5)
Rand Paul 20%(-)
Tim Scott 18% (-3)
Charlie Baker 7% (-3)
Undecided 5%(-6)

Republican Primary South Carolina
Tim Scott 35% (-4)
Ted Cruz 23%(+4)
Susana Martinez 13% (+2)
Rand Paul 10% (-3)
Charlie Baker 10% (-)
Undecided 9% (+1)

Other Races
Polling Average August 1st-Kentucky Governor
Matt Bevin 40% (-3)
Alison Lundergan Grimes 40% (-)
Undecided/Other 17% (+3)

Polling Average August 1st-Illinois Governor
Lisa Madigan  43% (-2)
Mark Kirk 43% (+1)
Undecided 13% (+1)

Polling Average August 1st-Colorado Governor
Cynthia Coffman 42%
John Hickenlooper  40%
Undecided 18%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

August Update

USA Senators not Seeking Re-Election
Jeff Sessions-Alabama
Jim Risch-Idaho
Pat Roberts-Kansas
Thad Cochran-Mississippi

August 5th-Western Leaders announce an agreement on a new Western Free Trade Deal, that will largely replace NAFTA, the agreement is between USA, Canada, Mexico, UK, Scotland (who becomes an Independent nation in 2018), Norway, Germany, France, Ireland, Netherlands and Belgium.  

August 20-Mississippi Primary Results Governor:
Republican Primary
Chris McDaniel 35%
Stacey E. Pickering 33%
Tate Reeves 32%

Runoff
Chris McDaniel 50.8%
Stacey E. Pickering 49.2%

Democratic Primary
Jim Hood 88%
Other 12%

August 27th
Hillary Clinton announces Sri Srinivasan as her Supreme Court nominee. Despite calls by some Republicans to block the nomination, the senate confirms the pick.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

September Update
Sept. 3-Jim Hood resigns as Attorney General to spend more time focusing on the Mississippi Governors race.  Hillary Clinton appoints Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (she is later confirmed by the Senate) to replace Hood. Nevada Governor Joe Heck appoints Mark Amodei as Senator from Nevada. Amodei will face a special election in 2020.

Sept.10-Hillary Clinton confirms plans to hold a referendum alongside the 2020 Presidential Election on ratifying the WFTD. Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are announced as Co-Chairs of the Yes Campaign. Donald Trump along with Jeff Sessions are appointed Co-Chairs of the No campaign

Sept 16-Hillary Clinton signs into law a bill legalizing medical marijuana nationally, however the bill does nothing to deal with Recreational use.

Sept 21-The federal government and various state governments come to an agreement on holding a 50 state referendum next November on whether to hold a constitutional convention. The referendum is officially non binding but each state has pledged to support a convention if their state supports it. It would require 34 states voting in favor of a convention to trigger one.