2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

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I can't believe we're going to lose Ed Burke.  RIP to a great Chicagoan and American!  Its now up to Silvana and Raymond to carry the torch.  (

[Green Line]

I will most likely vote for the UWF candidate Brandon Johnson and then Chuy in the runoff.

Lori Lightfoot will not be reelected, she has embarrassed herself nationally and has angered her old allies while not gaining any new one's. She has only love from the lakefront liberals seeking to gentrify the city. Saying this, ultimately the city is going to go to a pragmatic and trusted establishment figure, and that means Chuy has got this if he plays his cards right and gets the ultimate kingmaker's vote, the one and only Willie Wilson's.

Lightfoot is depending heavily on west and south side Black voters to turn out for her in droves this go round, the thought process being that she's the last shot to have a Black mayor for a while given how the population is declining. I wonder if it'll be enough, but I do think Chuy is a really unique threat to her, having both progressive and establishment support. I'll very likely vote for him myself, just like I did in 2015.

I mean the situation remains as it was for a decade: you need two of Hispanic, African American, or North Side Liberals to win. Progressive gentrifiers and conservative ethnic whites are secondary to the big three. Last time Lightfoot and Preckwinkle divided the African American block, but that was all Preckwinkle had so Lightfoot swept via the other groups. Rahm had the North Side and African Americans. If Lightfoot has lost North Side Liberal support, then Chuy is in a very good position.

Its gonna be Chewy and Lori.  Vallas possibly has an outside shot if he can unite the Daley/Joyce voters from 2019.

[Green Line]

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-mayoral-election-new-poll-shows-lightfoot-trailing-garcia-vallas

Wow!

Chewy - 28
Vallas - 19
Leadfoot - 15
Crazy Willie - 13

[Green Line]

Dopey Raymond Lopez endorsed Willie Wilson instead of legitimate contender Vallas.  He's finished.  I need to know who Ald. Tabares is supporting.

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But if Green is mayor, he'll spar with Aldermen Napolitano and Sposato.

Bronz, please acquaint yourself with Alderman Tabares, the real queen of CPD.  Sposato is old news.

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Starting to wonder if Chuy is planning on running an actual campaign. He's got a lot of support based on name recognition right now but I've not seen one ad and his site doesn't even have an Issues section. No platform, no media buys... is this a strategy or was he just busy with the Speaker fight?

He’s running the same campaign he ran in 2015.  Chuy is lazy, unintelligent (read: St Rita grad) and plans on coasting to the office because its “Latinos turn”.  He has no policy platform.

[Green Line]

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-mayoral-election-new-poll-shows-vallas-garcia-as-frontrunners

Stunning!  Paul Vallas LEAPS into the lead in this unbiased Republican poll.  Sorry, Johnson stans, its just not happening.  Chuy continues to drop as his campaign has no direction or purpose.  He's the only hispanic candidate in the race and can only get to 34% with them.  Thats terrible.

Vallas - 26% (Change vs Dec: +7)
Chuy - 19% (-9)
Johnson - 12% (+9)
Lightfoot - 10% (-5)

White:
Vallas - 31%
Johnson - 17%
Chuy - 15%
Lightfoot - 7%

Hispanic:
Chuy - 34%
Vallas - 28%
Johnson - 12%
Lightfoot - 8%

Black:
Wilson - 22%
Lightfoot - 18%
Vallas - 12%
Johnson - 9%

[Green Line]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

[Green Line]

who do republicans/conservatives vote for in Chicago mayoral elections

Conservatives will probably vote for Vallas, and to a lesser extent Chuy because he has high name rec as the Lightfoot alternative.  The Chicago Republican organization endorses Willie Wilson but they’re a joke and not even Republicans in the city care about their endorsement.

[Green Line]

Lightfoot internal:

https://twitter.com/craigrwall/status/1617630504047775744

Lightfoot -1, Vallas +8, Chuy -7, Johnson +5 from the internal she released last month.


In other news Brandon Johnson just released the most insane tax plan I've ever seen for a struggling city entering a recession.  A 3.5% "city income tax" on people making over 100k and a surcharge for taking Metra (which probably isn't legal anyway).  I guess he doesn't want more people taking public transit.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/1/23/23568177/mayoral-challenger-brandon-johnson-taxes-real-estate-financial-transactions

[Green Line]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

I think there’s a decent chance she does well among white liberals on the north side. No one likes her, but who else are they going for? Vallas is probably too conservative. Maybe Chuy, though he might be too liberal, and he’s focused his efforts in Latino wards.

I don’t know. I live on the north side and I don’t think people here like Lightfoot, but I think there’s a decent chance they come home to her without an intriguing alternative.

Combined with inner ring majority Black wards, it would be enough to get her to a runoff. And then against Chuy she easily picks up Vallas and Wilson voters.

Very similar path/coalition that Rahm and Daley had. Don’t count her out.

If Chuy makes it into the runoff I don't think he would have any trouble picking up Vallas and Wilson votes.  The bungalow belt isn't going for Lightfoot, period, unless somehow it was her and Johnson left.  I don't think many people see Chuy as too far left, he just seems kinda incompetent and is a running a blah compaign with no direction.  That all changes if he makes a runoff though, he will be the alternative to LLF and that is enough for most people.  Policy wise, from what you can ascertain from Chuy's vague statements, he is running to her right on public safety (or trying to - again the man has no true policies).

[Green Line]

Vallas recieved money from one of the former cops involved in the 2014 police killing of Laquan McDonald, which led to Rahm Emanuel having a lackluster second term...

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/paul-vallas-received-campaign-contribution-from-ex-officer-in-laquan-mcdonald-scandal/3062993/

Whoever wins, Chicago will be mired in crime and problems. The Chicago Bears left the city today, moving to Arlington Heights, a suburb.

Shows that owners don't care for the community, the Packers don't do that, they are a nonprofit, public owned corporation.

If Lightfoot wins reelection, a lot of Chicago cops will walk off the force.

What the national media has done to our city’s reputation is a tragedy.

Lmao.  The national media?.  Try Kim Foxx, Tim Evans, with an assist from Preckwinkle and Lightfoot.  The chickens have come home to roost.  Keep voting in the same hacks who have created the revolving door at 26th & California in the name of "equity" and see how much worse it gets.  The sky rocketing amount of shootings, assaults, robberies, and car jackings since 2020 aren't a media creation.

[Green Line]

These kind of racial appeals are totally normal in the Chicago black community, so not sure why Lori is getting criticized for it!  This is Bobby Rush’s wheelhouse.

[Green Line]

These kind of racial appeals are totally normal in the Chicago black community, so not sure why Lori is getting criticized for it!  This is Bobby Rush’s wheelhouse.

I detailed why in the comment above you. I get Rush doing it, these are his people, but this ain’t necessarily Lightfoot’s people

I saw.  I just figured there was a less racist explanation.

[Green Line]

Lettuce pray that O’Shea loses in the 19th Ward.  The good people of Mount Greenwood are not happy with him.

And on the Northside, Lightfoot’s twink Knudsen needs to go down.

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Curtains for Lightfoot.  Adios!

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Curtains for Lightfoot.  Adios!

So glad that Lightfoot is gone hahaha

It seems likely, but she’s in it down 10,000 votes and half the vote is remaining so I wouldn’t call it yet.

No, she's really not in it.

[Green Line]

One candidate wants to defund the police, tax metra riders, tax financial transactions (killing LaSalle St), implement a city income tax.  The other wants to hire more police officers.  What a dilemma!!!

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4 years ago I said she was going to be a disaster, and look what happened.  Remember, I'm right 99% of the time.

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4 years ago I said she was going to be a disaster, and look what happened.  Remember, I'm right 99% of the time.

Oh, you voted for Toni?

I wrote in Ed Burke.  Where did I say Toni wasn't worse?  I didn't vote to put either of them in the runoff.

[Green Line]

4 years ago I said she was going to be a disaster, and look what happened.  Remember, I'm right 99% of the time.

Oh, you voted for Toni?

I wrote in Ed Burke.  Where did I say Toni wasn't worse?  I didn't vote to put either of them in the runoff.

I was being sarcastic because I remember you posting in favor of Lightfoot on this blog.

Fake news!

Ed Burke needs to once again take up the #resistance mantle against whoever the new extremist mayor is.

I did say I was glad she beat Preckwinkle in the runoff.  I stand by that, too.  You have to try and make lemonade out of lemons.

[Green Line]

Vallas hanging with his base.

https://twitter.com/PaulVallas/status/1634997204535627776?s=20

Once one of the main Democratic bases in America, only Democrats like Vallas, Biden, Schumer and Newsom get these people.

Once Harris, etc. ascends in the party, they're gone.

I'm surprised they still live in Chicago and haven't moved elsewhere in Cook or even suburbia in DuPage.

Mount Greenwood has a lot of police officers and firefighters who are required to reside in the city. As are all municipal employees. For NYC they must reside in the NY metro, but not the city itself.

The South Side Irish Parade runs through Beverly and Morgan Park, not MTG.  Still many city workers though.

[Green Line]

Chicago's iron lady endorsed Vallas, and some other boring aldermen like Lil Raymond Lopez and Felix Cardona.

https://twitter.com/AldermanTabares/status/1635722455296647168

[Green Line]

All anybody wants is Columbus back in his place.  Brandon should promise to do this and he will win.

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I love it when Napervillians weigh in on Chicago elections.