NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[mencken]

I think Brat will lead by 4-6 once the poll is finished.

So far looking right again.

Let's hope patriot Dave Brat keeps up this domination of the CIA creep.

[mencken]

I think Brat will lead by 4-6 once the poll is finished.

So far looking right again.

Let's hope patriot Dave Brat keeps up this domination of the CIA creep.

Lol what? Dave Brat is a far righter (who we have 10 billion of in Congress anyways) who has contributed to the decay of our dysfunctional Congress.

Idk who Abigail is - they could be crazy. But Brat is one of the worst members of Congress, so it's pretty bizarre that you'd call him a "patriot", unless you're saying that ironically, or there is something wrong with your head.

Because Congress was just pitch perfect before 2014 when Eric Cantor lost renomination to some economics professor?

Excuse me if I like guys who aren't just a lapdog for leadership all too eager to slop at the government trough.

[mencken]

Curbelo only won his last two elections because his opponent was a nose picker; this does not surprise me.

[mencken]

It's fair to say that the ME-02 and VA-07 polls should be questioned. Are they one data point? Absolutely. NYT/Siena is doing a great job. But it's not "unskewing" to purely say that the samples are off ("Nonwhites" going to Republicans in ME-02 by like 20%?) The samples are so small that the entire poll is not 100% indicative. Same with VA-07 and young people.

FL-26 is surprising, more so because Curbelo right now has such an amazing favorable rating and the D is unknown. However, it's a Clinton +16 district, so it's also not entirely surprising to see partisanship win and have the D up.

ME-02 has a de minimus amount of nonwhites to start with though, studying inaccuracies in polling such a small subgroup is a triviality.

[mencken]

Wow NM-2 is really close..

Was it ever not supposed to be?

It's generally a very Republican district.

Trump got 50% here in 2016 (granted Gary Johnson may have eaten into that vote share a bit), similar to other competitive open seats.

[mencken]

Hultgren is screwed.

Yeah, up by 2 with plurality-Republican undecided voters. Start writing his obituary.