Your Iowa GOP Predictions. (user search)
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  Your Iowa GOP Predictions. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Your Iowa GOP Predictions.  (Read 3506 times)
mencken
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,222
« on: January 30, 2016, 11:40:59 AM »

It feels like it would be cheating to post a prediction after everyone gets a glimpse of the answer key. Anyway, I still agree with every qualitative prediction I posted a few days ago, just may need to revise the numbers to reflect what I suspect the Selzer poll will show:

Democrats (same numbers as posted earlier)
Sanders 51
Clinton 48
O'Malley 1

Republicans
Trump 29
Cruz 28 (I actually think both of these will round to 29, but then that would be a cop-out to dodge picking a winner)
Rubio 18
Paul 7
Carson 6
Bush 4
Huckabee 2
Christie 2
Kasich 1
Santorum 1
Fiorina 1

Never will there have been so much hype for a candidate finishing in a distant third.
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mencken
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,222
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2016, 10:55:24 AM »

Sanders - 50
Clinton - 45
O'Malley - 4

Cruz - 27
Trump - 26
Rubio - 22
Carson - 8
Paul - 4
Bush - 3
Christie - 2
Kasich - 2
Huckabee - 2
Fiorina - 1
Santorum - 1

Most of us will be wrong, but why not? I'm going to say Sanders and Cruz pull upsets.

I haven't run the numbers yet, but that has to be pretty darn close to the actual results on the GOP side. Nailed Sanders perfectly as well.
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