Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[mvd10]

A very dark and evil part of me hopes that Bolsonaro wins solely to trigger the libz, but let's not forget all the things Bolsonaro said about women, blacks and LGBT people lmao, he's pretty scummy. I hope Bolsonaro recovers and I certainly don't wish death on anyone but Bolsonaro doesn't strike me as someone I'd want in charge. There are enough ''neoliberal'' candidates out there I suppose (and I'm not even sure whether we can fully trust Bolsonaro when it comes to free market reforms).

[mvd10]

I looked up the Datafolha polls from 2006, 2010 and 2014 and the PSDB candidates won 56%, 58% and 65% in the respective run-offs. Keep in mind that only won 39% in 2006 and 44% in 2010. Since the 2006 election Brazil has had a huge class divide in politics, so I guess Bolsonaro winning over wealthy voters is not that special, especially when you take into account that the PT candidate seems to be the only other option.

[mvd10]

Seems pretty consistent with all the others. It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

Did Bolsonaro made some kind of gaffe or major error that gave Haddad a chance to pass him? I thought the "will not vote PT under any circumstances" vote would block him.

Recently there were media reports of a spat with his top economic adviser, outspoken opposition from women groups (women's role in society) and soccer fans (mostly over minority rights), and a media report that he allegedly threatened his ex-wife.

So...he's Trump.

Thank god Brazil doesn't have the electoral college.

With the difference that Bolsonaro's voters are concentrated in those wealthy, beautiful and economically dynamic cities

[mvd10]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

I was about to say wealthy foreign investors who want some juicy free market policies when I realized that's exactly the category Jaichind falls in. Seriously, the financial markets probably want Bolsonaro (since they can't get Alckmin). I don't get why you'd trust Bolsonaro for that though. Trump atleast had Ryan and McConnell, Bolsonaro has a history of voting against pension reforms and privatizations. Meanwhile Haddad probably is not that bad economically (though I'd personally prefer to keep the PT outside government, iirc Haddad wants to abolish Temer's labour reforms).

Personally I still don't know whom to back tbh. I don't take Bolsonaro's outrageous comments that seriously, but they're still worrisome. I'd probably just abstain. Though I'm pretty sure hypothetical Brazilian me would eventually end up supporting Bolsonaro.

[mvd10]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

I was about to say wealthy foreign investors who want some juicy free market policies when I realized that's exactly the category Jaichind falls in. Seriously, the financial markets probably want Bolsonaro (since they can't get Alckmin). I don't get why you'd trust Bolsonaro for that though. Trump atleast had Ryan and McConnell, Bolsonaro has a history of voting against pension reforms and privatizations. Meanwhile Haddad probably is not that bad economically (though I'd personally prefer to keep the PT outside government, iirc Haddad wants to abolish Temer's labour reforms).

Personally I still don't know whom to back tbh. I don't take Bolsonaro's outrageous comments that seriously, but they're still worrisome. I'd probably just abstain. Though I'm pretty sure hypothetical Brazilian me would eventually end up supporting Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro already admitted he doesn't understand economic stuff so he will likely give his economic adviser (and his minister of the economy if he wins), Paulo Guedes, a considerable amount of power over this issues during his administration and Guedes has economic views that are very right wing and pro free market.

I know that, but how long will Guedes last? And even if Bolsonaro really wants to push through economic reforms despite possible protests, he still needs to get the parliament on board which could be hard since Bolsonaro is an anti-establishment candidate. Anyway, what will the right-wing parties do when Bolsonaro is president? Will PSDB and similar parties support his agenda?

[mvd10]

Bolsonaro is too extreme for Marine Le Pen, but not for the Wall Street Journal.

Le Pen doesn't like him? This is it, I'm all in for Bolsonaro lmao.

[mvd10]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

What does that mean? That no one can run for more than one term?

He didn't specify if it was only for certain offices such as president or not.

So he isn't planning on running for reelection?

Does abolishing elections also count as setting term limits for crooked establishment politicians? Without elections they can't run for reelection .

[mvd10]

Final prediction:
Bolsonaro 53.6% Haddad 46.4%

The momentum seems to be with Haddad just like it was with Bolsonaro for the first round, so I expect Haddad to slightly overperform the polls. It still won't be enough though.