Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

PVV will not be in the next government. It just isn't going to happen. The next government probably will be VVD-CDA-D66 with 1 or 2 other parties. I suppose there is an outside chance for CDA-D66-GroenLinks-PvdA-SP if Buma decides personal ambition and his grudge towards Rutte are more important than his own party but I don't think that will happen.

[mvd10]

My current prediction is this:

VVD 28
PVV 23
CDA 21
GroenLinks 18
D66 17
SP 12
PvdA 12
CU 6
SGP 4
PvdD 3
50PLUS 3
Others 3

I think tonight's debate and the row with Turkey will help the VVD and to a lesser extent the PVV. But like David I'll wait until after the debates before I make a final decision.

[mvd10]

The SGP didn't include repealing gay marriage and reinstating the death penalty in their platform, which was seen as a sign that they would like to have a more prominent role (most likely giving outside support to a minority coalition). And the SGP also worked with a VVD-PvdA coalition on some issues so I think they could agree to give outside support to a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition as long as progressive legislation on abortion and euthanasia will be blocked (if the CDA and CU haven't already demanded that).

I also think Wilders had the upper hand, but it wasn't a big victory for Wilders imo.

[mvd10]

Asscher (PvdA) vs Wilders (PVV) about Integration
Wilders (PVV) vs Segers (CU) about Islam

 
  
Why do they deliver these topics to Wilders on a silver platter? Everyone knows his positions about Islam. Let him talk about Health Care or Income Inequality instead.  
  
  
About the I&O poll: A bump for Rutte makes sense. He has proven to quite some right-wing voters that he is willing to fight back when countries like Turkey go to far. That being said I agree that the PVV is to weak in that poll. I can see them coming in 3rd or maybe 4th if GL has a good turnout, but 5th is unrealistic.

Wilders already has quite well known positions on healthcare. He was one of the main opponents of healthcare cuts. It would be very interesting to see how Wilders would do in a debate about inequality against someone like Roemer though. Wilders probably doesn't really want to reduce income inequality and I wouldn't be surprised if Roemer was closer to Wilders' base on income inequality than Wilders himself. The PVV base is fairly left-wing on economics (they shouldn't make the mistake of becoming too left-wing on economics though).

If this final poll came true - why not cut the VVD out of the action entirely and have a D66/CDA/GL/SP/PvdA (maybe throw in CU too)...and have a centre left gov't with the D66 leader as PM?

CDA has ruled out a D66-CDA-GL-PvdA-SP coalition, even if Buma were to become PM. Promises like this probably are worthless, but I can't see it happening.

[mvd10]

Freedom poll! I like the SGP but SGP and D66 in a coalition would be very awkward (even more awkward than CU and D66) so it's probably better if VVD-CDA-D66-CU gets a majority. It probably won't happen though. I always get the feeling that Ipsos overestimates the ''bourgeoisie'' centre-right parties.

[mvd10]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Final seat prediction:

VVD 29
PVV 21
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50PLUS 4
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 1


I will do the other questions later today.

[mvd10]

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: D66
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Slightly under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Kerkrade
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Over
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Scheveningen
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Scheveningen
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? FvD and DENK

[mvd10]

The AD conducted an exit poll in Heemskerk, one of the places in the Netherlands that votes closed to the national average. The results:

VVD 35
D66 19
PVV 19
CDA 18
SP 16
GL 11
PvdA 10
50PLUS 8
CU 4
FvD 3
PvdD 3
DENK 1
Pirate's party 1

Take it with a grain of salt. SGP and CU probably score low because Heemskerk isn't in the bible belt, I think these parties will be fine in the end. The high score of VVD and the low score of GL both are very surprising. But like I said: take it with a grain of salt. And perhaps Heemskerk won't be close to the national average this time. Iowa voted Obama in 2012 while being to the right of Texas in 2016.

[mvd10]

Yeah. From what I've heard I think the VVD will get more seats than they got in the polls. 35 is a lot though.

[mvd10]

Yeah, 35-36 seats for Rutte I guess.

That is what the exit poll will show.

I would love to see my friends' faces if GL wins less than 15 seats while the VVD wins 35 seats. It would be glorious .

[mvd10]

We are almost there

[mvd10]

VVD 31
PvdA 9
PVV 19
SP 14
CDA 19
D66 19
CU 6
GL 16
SGP 3
PvdD 5
50PLUS 4

VVD-CDA-D66-CU at 75. With outside support from SGP they have a majority.

[mvd10]

I really hope VVD-CDA-D66-CU will get a majority. A stable centre-right government. And I wonder what Asscher's future in the PvdA is if he wins only 9 seats. You can't seriously stay leader if you lose 29 seats... Minister Liliane Ploumen is 10th on the list. Would this be the first time a minister is too low on the list to get elected?

[mvd10]

If D66 becomes the second largest party in the general election it would be the first time. DENK is at 3 seats, FvD at 2 seats.

[mvd10]

So the SGP sometimes supports the government? I always thought they're just standing on the sidelines...

The SGP worked with the VVD-PvdA coalition on some issues. I don't see why they wouldn't work with a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition. They are very conservative on social issues, but they know they can't ban abortion or repeal gay marriage so I think they would be open for compromises.

I hope it will be VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition with SGP support. D66 probably wants to work with GL but VVD and CDA probably want to work with CU and SGP. And I don't think Klaver would accept being the smallest coalition partner in a coalition with 3 centre-right parties.

[mvd10]

No changes in the exit poll update.

[mvd10]

Serious what if question here:

If in 2012 the PvdA had won 1 more seat than VVD, the PvdA leader would have become PM instead of Rutte in a "grand coalition". If that had happened, do people think the PvdA would have done much better tonight and the VVD would have been the "junior coalition partner that gets demolished in the subsequent election"?

Maybe. In the days after the coalition agreement was published the VVD lost up to 20 seats because of the outrage about means tested healthcare premiums. They ended 2012 below the PvdA in the polls.

[mvd10]

I wonder whether the PvdA will be back to 25-30 seats in 4 years if we get a centre-right government. It might happen, but GL will try to become the main left-wing party. I don't think GL's appeal is broad enough for that but we can't rule it out.

And I really can't see how Asscher stays on after losing 29 seats. Dijsselbloem will remain in politics (probably as a MP since I don't think the PvdA will be in government) and I think he has bigger ambitions than being a backbench MP. And they always can appoint Aboutaleb (the very popular mayor of Rotterdam) leader.

[mvd10]

Ipsos exit poll, share of vote:

20.6% VVD
12.7% CDA
12.6% D66
12.6% PVV
10.7% GL
  9.3% SP
  6.0% PvdA
  4.0% CU
  3.3% PvdD
  2.7% 50+
  2.0% SGP
  2.0% Denk
  1.3% FvD

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842109639894413312

Seems like forming a coalition will take a really, really, really long time.

The Dutch will never beat our record. THey can't even beat our turnout record.

Honestly as it stands it seems straighforward. CU-D66-CDA in, PvdA out, Rutte stays PM. Work with the small parties in a minority. DavidB predicted this several pages ago when Wilders was on 30+ seats.

The problem will be D66 and SGP, especially if the euthanasia issue flares up.

Euthanasia will be the main problem here yeah. But if PvdA and GroenLinks rule out to work with a VVD-CDA-D66 coalition it's the only option. We've seen how a coalition with the VVD worked out for the PvdA, I don't think GL would do much better.

[mvd10]

Ipsos exit poll, share of vote:

20.6% VVD
12.7% CDA
12.6% D66
12.6% PVV
10.7% GL
  9.3% SP
  6.0% PvdA
  4.0% CU
  3.3% PvdD
  2.7% 50+
  2.0% SGP
  2.0% Denk
  1.3% FvD

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842109639894413312

Seems like forming a coalition will take a really, really, really long time.

The Dutch will never beat our record. THey can't even beat our turnout record.

Honestly as it stands it seems straighforward. CU-D66-CDA in, PvdA out, Rutte stays PM. Work with the small parties in a minority. DavidB predicted this several pages ago when Wilders was on 30+ seats.

The problem will be D66 and SGP, especially if the euthanasia issue flares up.

I don't think it will be SGP, but the point still stands because CU have to be in there for a centre-right government.
I think they will try to negotiate with 50+ before SGP because they can buy off their electorate and get rid of it fairly easily. CDA and VVD +4 next election. Not sure if they have a majority in the FIrst Chamber.

VVD-CDA-D66-CU has a majority in the senate. I don't think they will try to work with a party like 50plus, I strongly suspect 50plus would walk away when things get hard. The SGP is a fairly reliable partner. And on economic issues the SGP is much closer to D66 than 50plus. CU and maybe even CDA will also demand that progressive legislation on issues like euthanasia will be blocked, so even with 50plus instead of SGP progressive legislation on ethical issues probably won't pass.

[mvd10]

SGP youth

So many questions...

Their youth organisation is the second biggest political youth organisation. In fact they probably score better with younger voters.

[mvd10]

Asscher is speaking now.

[mvd10]

I don't know much about the SGP youth, but they are no alt-righters. They are just really conservative on social issues. Like the religious right in the US.

[mvd10]

Asscher didn't resign btw. Spekman (the chairman) probably will be gone though.

[mvd10]

I don't think Baudet will be kingmaker. I can't see him working with VVD, CDA and D66. His main theme was breaking up the party cartel.