What if your House seat opened up?

[Figueira]

Suppose that your Congressperson retires in 2018. Who runs in the following election, and who wins?

[Figueira]

To answer my own question, I live in MA-01. I get the feeling that Democratic State Senator Eric Lesser is positioning himself for a Congressional run when Neal retires. He's young, he used to work for Obama, and he's been drawing attention to himself lately. He represents a moderate district but I don't know that he has any positions that are toxic to the left. Outgoing State Senator Ben Downing might be another option since he just retired at age thirty-six due to a belief in term limits, but he might have a hard time getting traction in the Springfield area that dominates the district. There's also some mayors like Dominic Sarno (Springfield) and Alex Morse (Holyoke). Maybe State Rep. Aaron Vega, but I doubt it. There's probably some other people I don't know about or forgot to mention.

I don't know if the Republicans would even run a candidate, but if they did, it wouldn't be anyone particularly relevant.

[Figueira]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

My district is very odd. It's mostly Democratic only because of Long Beach, which makes up over half the district's population. Because of this gerrymandering, Orange County voters in the district are disenfranchised. The much less populated Orange County side is heavily Republican. Long Beach does have a fair amount of Republicans in higher-income neighborhoods like Belmont Shore and the mostly white middle class Los Altos neighborhood. The conservative voters in West Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster would still vote for me even if I run as a Bill Weld moderate Republican/Libertarian? I literally did not see any campaign signs for Lowenthal on the Orange County side of the district, but saw a massive number of signs for Whallon. Orange County voters in the district vote against Lowenthal every election. Long Beach is the only reason Lowenthal even wins by wide margins. Without Long Beach, Lowenthal would lose to a Republican.

I mean, Long Beach isn't going away. The district is D+8 and that's pre-Trump PVI. Also just because a district has a heterogeneous population does not mean it's "gerrymandered."

[Figueira]

Since your district is mostly Democrats, your best shot is as a Bill Weld type Libertarian. Trump voters will vote for you anyway if you're running against a Democrat.

My district is very odd. It's mostly Democratic only because of Long Beach, which makes up over half the district's population. Because of this gerrymandering, Orange County voters in the district are disenfranchised. The much less populated Orange County side is heavily Republican. Long Beach does have a fair amount of Republicans in higher-income neighborhoods like Belmont Shore and the mostly white middle class Los Altos neighborhood. The conservative voters in West Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster would still vote for me even if I run as a Bill Weld moderate Republican/Libertarian? I literally did not see any campaign signs for Lowenthal on the Orange County side of the district, but saw a massive number of signs for Whallon. Orange County voters in the district vote against Lowenthal every election. Long Beach is the only reason Lowenthal even wins by wide margins. Without Long Beach, Lowenthal would lose to a Republican.

I mean, Long Beach isn't going away. The district is D+8 and that's pre-Trump PVI. Also just because a district has a heterogeneous population does not mean it's "gerrymandered."

It's not just heterogeneous, there is a clear geographic, county, and partisan divide between Long Beach and the Orange County side of the district. Long Beach voters have full control of the district. I feel my neighborhood (where Trump won every precinct) and neighboring cities are disenfranchised. Could 2020 redistricting make it more competitive by taking out parts of Long Beach? It's possible Long Beach goes away by being moved into another district with future redistricting. It's also possible my neighborhood gets moved into CA-48 after redistricting.

The nature of single-member districts is always going to disenfranchise people, sadly.