Most likely New England state to have a Democratic governor after 2018?

[Figueira]

I actually think the answer is Maine.

[Figueira]

Tier 1: RI + ME
Tier 2: CT
Tier 3: NH
Tier 4: VT
Tier 5: MA

I agree with this, except I think MA should be above VT, just because VT-gov tends to buck national trends more than MA-gov, and 2018 is more likely than not to be a Democratic year.

Of course, Baker has actually been governing for two years unlike Scott, so I can see how there's more uncertainty in VT.

[Figueira]

I would't be totally sure about Maine. There are rumors Susan Collins might run.

IF so - yes. She may be "a Maine Phil Scott"... The only Republican with chances to win, but - with very good chances..

She'd win by a much bigger margin than Phil Scott did in 2016. Then again, Maine is a much less Democratic state than Vermont.

I doubt she'll run though. Also Poliquin isn't really as great of a candidate as he looked in 2014.