Trump isn't palatable enough to whites in the Detroit suburbs (the ones who voted for George Bush and Barack Obama) and isn't wholesome enough for West Michigan voters, to win Michigan. Hyper conservatives in Livingston County and rural whites in Northern Lower Michigan and the UP should love him. Safe D.
Clinton: 56
Trump: 42
Other: 4
The state's PVI has been right around D+3 for a few cycles now. No reason to expect that to change. And county swings are remarkably easy to predict.
As a Michigander, I agree with this
for the most part. I do think the anti-crime or "straight talk" will appeal much better than expected towards the Detroit area (whites), and he obviously will soak up the vote from strong conservative and rural areas, but his down-fall will be educated low-crime suburban areas. Sub-par Grand Rapids margins, lakeside western counties, and common D strongholds will keep him down.
Not quite a 14% margin though. I will reasonably expect an 8% - 11% margin.
Poll
