2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Crumpets]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

[Crumpets]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

I guess if you grant Nevada its one miss in 2016, it has a streak going back to 2004. If you switch to "always votes with the popular vote winner," though, there are a lot more options.

[Crumpets]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

I mean, personally I really don't see Trump being in any state in 2024 to mount a presidential campaign. He might hint at it for grift reasons, but he's not especially healthy and if I were him, I'd just take the retirement at Mar-a-Lago, maybe make myself a nice media company, build my presidential library and lob proverbial spitballs at Biden on Twitter.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324123312545517575

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/jwpetersNYT/status/1324128772849913863

[Crumpets]

Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is down to 256,058. Biden is closing the gap fast.

Down to 246,149 now. 10,000 votes in 7 minutes.

[Crumpets]

Trump's lead in Georgia is down to 1.0% (47,111 votes)

[Crumpets]

Here's a random question if anybody's tracking - what's been Kanye's best county result?

[Crumpets]

It says it's only 58% reporting, so I expect this will change, but I am absolutely blown away at Biden's performance in Walla Walla County, WA. Even if he loses it within 10 points, that's a huge statement on college voters turning out en masse for Biden.

[Crumpets]

It says it's only 58% reporting, so I expect this will change, but I am absolutely blown away at Biden's performance in Walla Walla County, WA. Even if he loses it within 10 points, that's a huge statement on college voters turning out en masse for Biden.

I think it was more the SDA population flipping on Trump than college voters.

SDA as in Seventh-day Adventists? I didn't know they had flipped on Trump. Is there a backstory here?

[Crumpets]

Another ballot drop in PA. Trump now up 3.4%, 212,236 votes.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324353932022480896
Trump secretly posts on Atlas. Don't @ me.

[Crumpets]

In other news, it looks like third parties performed phenomenally well in rural Alaska compared to elsewhere. The combined two-party vote in the North Slope only stands at 85.4% as of now.

[Crumpets]

How many points will Biden win the NPV by?

I think Nate Silver estimated something like 4.1-4.3 when all is said and done, but that was yesterday evening. Not sure if there's been any updates.

[Crumpets]

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but it looks like Biden won Lynchburg, VA, home of Liberty University. First time since 1948 and first time without a strong 3rd party performance in the area since 1944.

[Crumpets]

Trumpland
https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1324183227951624194?s=20

It's the bread scientist!

[Crumpets]

Apparently Robby Mook ran the DCCC this cycle lol.

Wait, did he really?

[Crumpets]

This whole thread is just incredible...

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1324445099430940673?s=20

DMP was in tears during the call.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1324445867663908870?s=20

I'm not sure about generally blaming the "liberal wing" of the party, but you have to admit their branding is God-awful. Progressives talk about how popular their ideas are, but progressives are often the ones that come up with these awful catchphrases. "Defund the police" is a guaranteed vote-loser, even if police reform is popular. Calling themselves "Democratic socialists" is a vote-loser, even if progressivism can be popular. I don't even understand that one, seeing as how they are social democrats at their leftmost.

This is clearly a problem with the Democratic Party in general, judging by the Florida minimum wage thing. The party needs rebranding before 2022/2024 (and this is coming from a moderate establishment™ dem who loves Pelosi)

Eh, I think there's nuance though. Joe Biden way end up winning 300 EVs in the highest turnout in decades. There *are* issues but it looks like Biden also ended up doing a lot of things right.

It’s clear that most liberal policies have the support of a large majority of the people, but the messaging from the party is pretty bad. Something needs to change. For the record, I’m definitely not saying that we should hand over the party to AOC, just switch up the leadership within.

I think part of it is that the Democratic leadership feels beholden enough to their base that they feel they need to copy their language word-for-word or they'll lose that relationship. It's really easy to communicate you believe black lives matter without using those exact words which will inevitably be used in an attack against you. Republicans are masters of the "wink, wink, nudge, nudge" dog whistling that lets them say whatever they want to their supporters and then just deny any of it was nefarious when questioned about it.

[Crumpets]

Nate Cohn: Why has The Times not called Arizona? The main reason: We do not believe there’s solid enough data on the votes that remain to be counted after Election Day.

[Crumpets]

Sec Def Mark Esper planning to resign because he was about to pushed out, per MSNBC.

[Crumpets]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Yeah. Hawley might do well in a Republican primary, but a certain amount of Trump's success did come from the fact that he was already a household name, and that name was synonymous (whether rightfully or not) with opulence, glamor, and fame.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1324439091925176327?s=20

I like that when he says "watch" he rolls up his sleeves and you can see his watch.

[Crumpets]

I've also said it before but the democratic joy of infighting & navel gazing makes it too easy to see this as solely a democratic failure; rather than a democratic failure & good republican outreach work

Or we can just take the Republican tactic of "Joe Biden won in a landslide. The only reason he didn't win by 10% with 413 electoral votes was because of voter fraud. 100% of new voters going to Trump in the Rio Grande Valley? Very suspicious!"

[Crumpets]

Trump will still eek this out in my opinion.

What states do you think he will win to hit 270?

[Crumpets]

How is it so difficult to count ballots?

Do we know for a fact this isn't, like, one intern, or maybe a very old lady with terrible eyesight and a giant magnifying glass who has been tasked with this?