2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Crumpets]

My rule of thumb for people asking was "If Indiana is called for Trump and Virginia isn't called for Biden at close, it's a good night for Trump. If Indiana isn't called for Trump and Virginia is called at close, it's a good night for Biden." I was really not expecting a "both are called for their respective favorites and Kentucky isn't" scenario. Congrats President Kanye.

[Crumpets]

NYT has called Kentucky but not Indiana.

[Crumpets]

Just got a small dump of initial results in NH, so Trump is no longer officially in the lead there. Still <1% reporting state-wide.

[Crumpets]

Martin County, IN is at 96% reporting. Trump gained 1.9% of the vote and Biden gained 1.4% for a total swing of 0.5% to Trump.

[Crumpets]

NYT is showing Biden up 91,000 votes in Miami-Dade. Not sure if we're all looking at the same numbers here. Still not amazing for Biden, but not disasterous.

[Crumpets]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

Guam update (73% partially reporting, 19k total votes): marginal improvement for Biden to 55.8, Trump at 41.4.

Appears Guam has a similar pro-incumbent bias that Hawaii also has.

I love that memes that were born here, what, 16 years ago are still going strong.

The memes deserve their accolades

All hail mypalfish for creating the longest-running meme on Atlas.

Heck, for 2004, they probably have a reasonable claim to creating one of the first politics-based memes anywhere on the internet.

Hardly. The internet long predates the web. I first used the internet in 1986. (FTP for the win!)

Yeah, but memes? I don't remember any internet memes before at least 2008ish, unless you count things like the Hampsterdance that were more just pop culture phenomena that were based on the internet.

[Crumpets]

Also just a reminder that, despite 51% of the Florida vote being in, none is from Palm Beach, Broward, Orange, or Leon, and there's still less than a two point difference between Biden and Trump.

[Crumpets]

NYT called Virginia for Biden. EV is now 16-13 Biden on their count.

[Crumpets]

Something just seems very strange in FL. Check my prediction if you want - I have Trump winning it. But until we know the composition of VBM/EV/ED for each county and that it's being accounted for in their needle, it seems really presumptive to say Trump has a 95% chance of winning when he's down by 0.8% with 80% and no clear information on a swing either way from the counties that are fully reporting.

[Crumpets]

Boone County, KY (Cincinnati suburbs) is the first county that really has had a substantial swing that is nearly all reporting. Was Trump +42 in 2016, now Trump +24.

[Crumpets]

NYT calls SC for Trump.

[Crumpets]

Boone County, KY (Cincinnati suburbs) is the first county that really has had a substantial swing that is nearly all reporting. Was Trump +42 in 2016, now Trump +24.

Why did it drop from 57k to 38k votes though?

That's a good question. It makes me wonder if the % reporting numbers are accurate, not only in KY.

[Crumpets]

Lots of calls on NYT - TN, MS, AL, OK for Trump, IL, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA for Biden. EV totals now 85-55 Biden.

[Crumpets]

NYT is showing Denton County, TX as Trump +7 with >98% of the vote in.

[Crumpets]

Clay County, IN is another one that seems to be showing the >98% reporting is not really >98% reporting. Currently about 4,000 votes short of its 2016 final vote. Something's up with these "reporting" numbers.

[Crumpets]

Biden way up in NC with over half reporting.... Come on, that would be huge.

I just saw NC went from <1% in to suddenly 55% in

And the needle still seems to think Biden is favored there, if only narrowly.

EDIT: Spoke too soon, now 56% Trump.

[Crumpets]

Not to beat a dead horse here, but there is seriously something not right about the "precincts reporting" %s that are being listed. Fairfax City is reportedly almost all in, but also barely shows 3,000 votes after casting 7,367 in 2016. If that number is wrong across multiple counties in multiple states, there is something big we are missing.

[Crumpets]

Not to beat a dead horse here, but there is seriously something not right about the "precincts reporting" %s that are being listed. Fairfax City is reportedly almost all in, but also barely shows 3,000 votes after casting 7,367 in 2016. If that number is wrong across multiple counties in multiple states, there is something big we are missing.

Which states is this true for?

So far Boone County, KY; Clay County, IN; and Fairfax City (not county), VA all have clearly wrong % reporting numbers, at least on the NYT map, unless turnout dropped substantially (like, 30-50%) since 2016 and all saw huge swings (Boone and Clay to Biden, Fairfax to Trump).

[Crumpets]

Not to beat a dead horse here, but there is seriously something not right about the "precincts reporting" %s that are being listed. Fairfax City is reportedly almost all in, but also barely shows 3,000 votes after casting 7,367 in 2016. If that number is wrong across multiple counties in multiple states, there is something big we are missing.

Which states is this true for?

So far Boone County, KY; Clay County, IN; and Fairfax City (not county), VA all have clearly wrong % reporting numbers, at least on the NYT map, unless turnout dropped substantially (like, 30-50%) since 2016 and all saw huge swings (Boone and Clay to Biden, Fairfax to Trump).

Add Orange County, IN and Cherokee County, OK to this list.

[Crumpets]

Imagine after all this time, Biden wins with the OG 272 freiwal from 2016 - Trump flips NV and Biden flips PA, WI, and MI for the win.

[Crumpets]

NYT finally calls IN for Trump.

[Crumpets]

Did I time travel back to 2004?

Lol, the current popular vote count is 50.4% Trump, 48.3% Biden. The 2004 election was 50.7% Bush, 48.3% Kerry. So, yes.

[Crumpets]

Alright everyone, I'm heading to bed. Not because Biden is underperforming expectations, but because it's 2 am and I do actually have classes tomorrow. If I could leave you with one thought, it's this: something is suspicious about these "reporting" percentages. Double-check the figures you're seeing against how many votes a place got in 2016 to see if they stand up.

Goodnight!

[Crumpets]

Just woke up and had to check my phone. Feeling better than I did when I went to sleep. That is all. Going back to sleep now.

[Crumpets]

I went to bed at 9 pm eastern feeling pretty pessimistic. I woke up at about midnight eastern, checked the map, and felt a lot better. Checked again at 3 am eastern, and continued to feel better.

Now I'm just thoroughly confused. I'm liking everything I'm hearing and yet it makes no sense to me in the context of where things were when I went to bed. You guys aren't just optimistically speculating "here's how Biden can still win"-style are you?