COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Crumpets]

Here's an updated map of the 14-day trend by state. 10% increments starting at zero (so, 30% = 1-9% growth/decrease, 40% = 10-19% growth/decrease, etc.). The numbers for Nevada might be artificially good, since it looks like Clark County didn't report anything on the NYT tracker yesterday after adding a bunch of retroactive cases the day before. Regardless, this is a big improvement over the last time I made this map on September 23rd.

[Crumpets]

Here's an updated map of counties that have fully vaccinated 70% of the eligible (12+) population. Counties in white don't have data, or don't release relevant data. (VT publishes only 1st dose data by county. ID only releases data for all citizens and all adults, but not 12+. Blaine County, ID is at 70+% for all citizens, so it can be assumed they have hit 70% of all eligible.)



And the same map for Puerto Rico by municipalities:

[Crumpets]

You can see the impact of state policy in the Cincy metro. Warren County Ohio is wealthier and more educated than those three Kentucky Counties yet has less vaccinated people.

I'm in one of those counties in Kentucky with a high vaccination rate.

The Ohio side of the river is more masky, but at least the Kentucky side believes in vaccines.

Which is kind of ironic, because isn't that where the Creation Museum is?

[Crumpets]

If a person is vaccinated in a different county from where they live, which county is it counted under?

I would assume the one where they were vaccinated, but that's an interesting question.

I was vaccinated in a different county from where I live (easier to get an appointment outside of King County), and I always suspected they counted me with the numbers for the county where I live because they asked me for my address when I got my vaccination appointment and the county vaccination trackers always use language like "number of residents vaccinated" rather than "number of patients" or something like that. I can't say for certain, though.

[Crumpets]

Here's an updated map of counties that have fully vaccinated 70% of the eligible (12+) population. Counties in white don't have data, or don't release relevant data. (VT publishes only 1st dose data by county. ID only releases data for all citizens and all adults, but not 12+. Blaine County, ID is at 70+% for all citizens, so it can be assumed they have hit 70% of all eligible.)



And the same map for Puerto Rico by municipalities:

It's really interesting seeing the places where wealthy suburbs score higher than neighboring cities, for example in DFW, Houston metro, Jacksonville metro, Detroit metro, Washington, D.C. metro, Kansas City metro, Milwaukee metro, Chicago metro, Philadelphia metro etc. etc. etc.

I've been wondering if the vaccination map might be a good indicator of the trend map in 2024, with more vaccinated places of all dispositions trending D and less vaccinated places of all dispositions trending R.

[Crumpets]

Here's an updated map of the 14-day trend by state. 10% increments starting at zero (so, 30% = 1-9% growth/decrease, 40% = 10-19% growth/decrease, etc.). The NH numbers are probably artificially high right now because of gaps in reporting two weeks ago.

[Crumpets]

Well, my cousin, her husband, and her daughter all now have COVID. Her husband got it first and got hit hard, but has since turned a corner after getting monoclonal antibody treatment. Fortunately my cousin and her daughter both have more mild cases, at least for now. I'm not super close with this cousin, but I'm closer with her sister who has been relaying this info, but apparently none of them were vaccinated, so we're not super thrilled that my (much more high risk) aunt and her (anti-vax) husband have now also been exposed, but fortunately, they haven't been showing any symptoms. According to my other cousin, her excuse was that she "has a lot of allergies" and didn't want to risk any side effects, but she doesn't seem to have talked to her doctor about any of this to see whether any of her allergies would actually make for any issues. I'm not sure what her husband or daughter's reasons were for not getting vaccinated, although her daughter would have only become eligible very recently, if at all, since I think she's around 5 years old.

It is impossible to over-emphasize how much vaccinations not only protect yourself, but all those around you.

[Crumpets]

I'm done with masks, I'm done with mandates and I'm in no rush to get boosters. If people wanna spend the rest of the decade panicking, that's on them.

I am done.

Some people are going to spend the rest of the decade panicking. And the unfortunate reality is that many of these people are in positions of power or influence.

As far as I can see, the unwarranted panic about non-existant lockdowns and vaccines conspiracies far exceeds any continued panic about the virus among vaccinated Americans. Living in the massive left-liberal bubble that is Seattle, I don't know anyone who isn't doing in-person Thanksgiving this year (a near total 180 since last year). Meanwhile, I do apparently know someone who is spending this Thanksgiving going to DC to protest Biden's tyranny.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/councilofdc/status/1474379402616127533

[Crumpets]

Probably helped by (although not entirely attributable to) Christmas reporting lags, we're currently at our lowest global weekly death rate since October 2020.

[Crumpets]

Zero COVID hasn't been plausible since "two weeks to slow the spread" but there's been plenty of strategic incoherence regarding why we are doing much of what we have been doing since then, so many people still believe that is our collective goal.

Nobody on here is arguing for it, maybe a few in the real world, but that definitely has not been the goal since…probably last summer.

Then what is the goal?

Keep hospitals running and not overwhelmed? Lmao

Yeah, this has always been my standard for success. People need to be able to go to the hospital in case of an emergency and not have to deal with ICUs at 150% capacity and overworked and exhausted doctors and nurses. Either we somehow dramatically increase the number of hospitals and medical workers (seems pretty unlikely within a matter of years) or we find ways to improve COVID treatment and prevention until we reach at least somewhat close to pre-pandemic levels of hospital operations.

[Crumpets]

Newsweek: Omicron May Be the 'Harbinger of the End' of COVID's Epidemic Phase, Study Says

The decreased severity of the Omicron COVID-19 variant may be a "harbinger" of an end to the global pandemic caused by virus. Initial data from South Africa indicates that the variant results in a quarter of deaths associated with earlier variants.

In the first study conducted to assess the risk of fatalities presented by Omicron researchers assessed the progress of COVID patients admitted to the Steve Biko Academic Hospital and the Tshwane District Hospital, the latter of which has been converted into a COVID specialist facility.

The hospitals are located in the City of Tshwane, the region of South Africa that was the first global epicenter of Omicron.

"There are clear signs that case and admission rates in South Africa may decline further over the next few weeks," the authors wrote.

"If this pattern continues and is repeated globally, we are likely to see a complete decoupling of case and death rates suggesting that Omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the epidemic phase of the COVID pandemic ushering in its endemic phase."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) describes an endemic as a sudden localized rise in a particular disease that is usually present in a community. This means that the disease's spread is predictable. This is in contrast to a pandemic, which the CDC defines as an: "Event in which a disease spreads across several countries and affects a large number of people."

[Crumpets]

Since December 20th, when Omicron really began to take off in the US, about 2.28% of the US population has tested positive for COVID. The idea that Omicron will just work its way through the entire population, and we'll reach some level of herd immunity probably has some truth to it (assuming no new variants in the near future), but it still has a long way to go, if that's the plan.

[Crumpets]

Since December 20th, when Omicron really began to take off in the US, about 2.28% of the US population has tested positive for COVID. The idea that Omicron will just work its way through the entire population, and we'll reach some level of herd immunity probably has some truth to it (assuming no new variants in the near future), but it still has a long way to go, if that's the plan.

Most tests are at home nowadays, and I suspect most positive home test results are not getting reported to the govt. I've read that some counties, notably Fairfax VA, are not even accepting submission of home test results.

There is also tons of asymptomatic omicron that is presumably not being tested for.

Not to mention that plenty of mildly symptomatic people across the country probably aren’t even bothering to get tested in the first place.

Yes, it's true that the official count has always been an undercount of infections, but I will push back a bit on the "most tests are at home" line. I don't think that's true, at least in a lot of areas. Here at least, home tests are much harder to come by than the "official" drive-through tests. I don't know anyone who has been able to get access to at-home tests since they hit the market. Demand is high, but supply is still very low. At least, I don't think we can say that the combination of unofficial tests and asymptomatic untested cases is enough to drive that figure up more than a few more percentage points.

[Crumpets]

For some good news, here's an updated map of the 14-day trend in case numbers by state. 10% increments starting at zero (so, 30% = 1-9% growth/decrease, 40% = 10-19% growth/decrease, etc.).

[Crumpets]

For some good news, here's an updated map of the 14-day trend in case numbers by state. 10% increments starting at zero (so, 30% = 1-9% growth/decrease, 40% = 10-19% growth/decrease, etc.).

That was Thursday, this is today:

[Crumpets]

Here's some good news using the NYT data. This is the percent of hospitalized COVID patients at the start of each month since August 2020 that are in the ICU. Omicron and improved treatments have brought that number to an all-time low in a way that even the vaccination of most of the country was unable to achieve.

[Crumpets]

For some good news, here's an updated map of the 14-day trend in case numbers by state. 10% increments starting at zero (so, 30% = 1-9% growth/decrease, 40% = 10-19% growth/decrease, etc.).

That was Thursday, this is today:

As of today - it's so pretty!

[Crumpets]

As of Monday's update (which it's worth noting seems to have a couple of gaps, albeit not huge ones), our weekly national case load is now back below peak-Delta levels in early September.

[Crumpets]

If the current case load trajectory continues, we will probably be at our lowest weekly average nation-wide since the initial rise of Delta last summer within just a few days.

[Crumpets]

Nobody was "locked down."

What about those 2 months back in the spring of 2020?

I flew across the country on April 7th, 2020 without hassle (or even a mask). We use "lockdown" colloquially because nothing was open to go do, and most people chose to stay home vs aimlessly wander empty streets with shuttered businesses, but it was never a true "lockdown" like in some countries.