Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[libertpaulian]

The vibe I'm getting is that Cameron is enjoying a last-minute surge but is probably too late for victory.

[libertpaulian]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

If Beshear does end up winning decently and turnout IS low in Cameron areas, yeah I wonder if it also is partly that strongly GOP voters don't mind Beshear as much so weren't as inclined to go and vote against him, and then add that Cameron wasn't inspiring on their own side, a lot of hardcore GOPers were just like meh, if Beshear wins, it's not the end of the world.

The GOP's majority in either legislative chamber isn't in any real danger, either. Now, if either chamber was competitive, THEN you might see better turnout for Cameron.

[libertpaulian]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

If Cameron was running in Indiana, he wouldn't have too much of a problem.

[libertpaulian]

What's the one way a Dem can succeed Beshear? Run monster margins in Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin Counties, improve in the Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs, perform respectably in the "small city" counties (such as Warren and Rowan Counties), and try not to get too demolished in the rest?