Assuming these factors are set in stone for 2022...

[libertpaulian]

1. The COVID vaccines are safe and effective and enough of the population has been vaccinated;
2. COVID is no longer a pandemic;
3. People are no longer wearing masks or social distancing;
4. The economy comes roaring back;
5. We are not bogged down in any unpopular wars; and
6. There are no race riots

Which party does well in the midterms?

Is it a 2002 type scenario?  Is it 1994/2010 all over again?  Or is it a more neutral year like 1978?

[libertpaulian]

On the paper 2018 should not have been a too bad year for republicans and you can say the same about 2014 concerning democrats as in both cases the economy was growing. The thing is that the most partisan voters, aka those who turn-out during midterms, don't care about the state of the economy and when the economy is doing well those who don't like the president anyway will simply give the credit to someone else (in 2018 most democrats gave the credit to Obama).

What about COVID?  If we're no longer masking up and social distancing in the fall of 2022, that could be beneficial for Biden, just like Bush's response to 9/11 benefitted him.