IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[libertpaulian]

There's no way Trump made up THAT much ground with independents.

[libertpaulian]

And I hardly buy that Trump has made up ground with women.

[libertpaulian]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251190.msg7710734#msg7710734

Heres the poll from 2016 and forum reaction.

I think people should genuinely take this as a small yellow flag atleast. Im still pretty sure Biden wins but its absurd gaslighting to say one should just entirely discount this poll.

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.

33% voted early in 2016.  Therein lies the difference.

[libertpaulian]

I understand Selzer is great at polling Iowa and that Iowa can predict trends of the white working class. However, Biden is still up by 8.6 in the NPV. Let's say that there's another systematic polling issue in the upper Midwest and Biden is in danger of losing one or more of MN/WI/MI/PA. So if Biden is underperforming his polls in this region, where is that +8.6 coming from? It can't be all from votes in safe blue states, and a lot of the safe red states (like IN, MO, etc.) have similar profile as Iowa and Biden is underperforming there. Let's say Florida is close as usual. Then this suggest to me that in this scenario Biden would be overperforming his polling in the Sun Belt, in particular AZ, TX, GA, and NC, and winning those states. So unless there's a big polling error in the NPV and Biden is actually only up by 4, then I still feel good about Biden's chances.

Biden is not up +8.6. Nevada early vote is consistent with a national margin of Biden+5, possibly Biden+4.

Man, how does it feel living in a bubble?

[libertpaulian]

Rod Blum didn't even win IA-01 by 15% in 2016, and he had the benefit of Trump's mega-coattails that year.

This poll is trash.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.

[libertpaulian]

Also, if Trump truly is winning Iowa bigly, why is he paying visits to it this weekend?

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1272192627933360129

This was also when the South was in the midst of its major COVID outbreak, the nation was still hot-blooded over George Floyd and Breonna Taylor, Trump pulled his tear-gassing stunt in front of that Episcopal chapel, and unemployment was still rising.

It was reasonable to believe at that time that Trump could lose a LOT of ground.

[libertpaulian]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

[libertpaulian]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

Iowa state campus residence precinct, Johnson county college students are way more D although non college youth in Iowa were probably more R.

I don't think its that unbelievable for that crosstab.

It's as if the economy, the pandemic, mass shootings, etc. can also be motivators and not just the idea that Kamala Harris being VP would disband the white cishet patriarchy.

[libertpaulian]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

[libertpaulian]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/520871-aei-bidens-proposals-would-cut-taxes-for-most-households-in-2021'

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/09/25/biden-democratic-sweep-would-be-best-outcome-for-the-economy-moodys-says/?sh=c12774142838

[libertpaulian]

So, what ABC/WaPo polls get released tonight?  National?  State?

[libertpaulian]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

No, Europe didn't handle it the right way. Certain countries, like Germany, did. South Korea or Singapore are good examples as well. We couldn't even get the basics right, such as our leader telling everyone to put on a mask!

South Korea and Singapore are not applicable to the western democracies.
The people in the western democracies are free and they don't like being told what to do.

South Korea and Singapore are free-market countries, in fact, somewhat freer than the USA even.