The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[libertpaulian]

Thoughts on South Bend?  I honestly feel the state of Buttigieg's candidacy pre-Iowa hinges on which guy ultimately wins.

I don't know anything about the mayor's race there.

Kind of like Pence after he was tabbed to be the VP nominee by Trump, Buttigieg is Mayor of South Bend in Name Only at this point.

South Bend is a democratic stronghold and it would be a very big upset if the mayor office were to flip. Right ?

Municipal elections here tend to be VERY low-turnout.  It's all about which people decide to get off their butts and show up.

[libertpaulian]

Okay, time for some Hoosier Election Night results.  I know we're all excited about the Bevin vs. Beshear race, the Hood vs. Reeves race, the Virginia state legislative races, and the like, but let's not forget our municipal races!  These are VERY important!  Not to mention a good first step in building a state's political party.  Let's start!

Based on these results, it looks like Democrats will pick up two seats on the Munster Town Council!  This is my hometown and current town.  Munster has usually been Safe R, so this is YUGE NEWS!!!

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/democrats-take-munster-town-council-seats-in-historic-election-night/article_f84a99b1-e7ba-57ba-8218-af6c57978487.html

MUNSTER — Democratic candidates claimed victory on election night, flipping the script for the predominately Republican-controlled council.

Democrats Kenneth Schoon and Steve Tulowitzki are the apparent winners of two of Munster's council seats.

"This is very significant," Tulowitzki said. "For the past 16 years there has been single-party control over the Town Council and clerk-treasurer's office. This is a historic event and I think it will serve the people of Munster to have more equal representation on their council."

It also looks like James Mueller will win the South Bend mayoral election, which is a YUGE vindication of Buttigieg's legacy:

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/local/james-mueller-elected-south-bend-s-next-mayor-succeeding-friend/article_ba543c5e-a99f-5024-9fd1-a4ce51f83fac.html

James Mueller, who returned home from Washington in 2015 to serve as chief of staff for his high school classmate, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, will now take over from his friend as the city’s next chief executive.

Mueller, 37, defeated Republican Sean Haas, a government teacher at LaVille High School, in Tuesday’s election. Mueller held a commanding lead, with nearly 65% of the votes, with most of the ballots counted.

Mueller will take office as South Bend’s new mayor in January.

“The progress over the last eight years in our city is undeniable,” he told supporters celebrating at Corby’s Irish Pub Tuesday night. “Yet we still have a lot more work to do to take our growth to the next level and make sure everyone can share in our progress.”

Tom Henry (D), incumbent Mayor of Fort Wayne, reelected:

https://wpta21.com/news/top-stories/2019/11/05/projected-winner-tom-henry-secures-fort-wayne-mayors-race/

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WPTA21) – Democrat Tom Henry has secured another four years in office.

ABC21 made the formal projection with 68% of precincts reporting and Henry’s vote total nearly 25 points ahead of Republican challenger Tim Smith.

Joe Hogsett (D), incumbent Mayor of Indianapolis, wins a second term:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/11/05/indiana-elections-2019-indianapolis-mayor-race-joe-hogsett-jim-merritt/2487259001/

Voters overwhelmingly handed a second term to Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett on Tuesday, but even in victory Hogsett acknowledged more work needs to be done in a city that suffers from gun violence and crumbling streets.

Despite those challenges, Hogsett cruised to victory in great part because his opponent's campaign never seemed to connect with voters — or provide enough distinct and compelling solutions on how he would fix the city's problems.

The win came quickly.

Just a couple hours after polls closed, as thousands of votes were still being counted around 8:30 p.m., Republican State Sen. Jim Merritt called Hogsett to concede the race.

"I am humbled, I am honored and I could not possibly be more excited to serve as the mayor of Indianapolis for another four years," Hogsett, 63, shouted to supporters at the Athenaeum on Tuesday night.

The crowd responded with cheers and a roaring chant: "Four more years!"

Also, in Hamilton County, it looks like its slow but sure D trend continues.  Democrats pick up a city council seat in Carmel (!), and two city council seats in Fishers (!!!!!):

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/local/hamilton-county/2019/11/05/indiana-elections-2019-hamilton-county-results/2501314001/

Three Democrats claimed upset victories in three of Hamilton County's city council races on Tuesday night.

Democrats Miles Nelson won the newly created west district in Carmel, while Jocelyn Vare and Samantha Delong both won city council seats in Fishers.

"This is a major step for the Democratic party in Hamilton County,” said Joe Weingarten, chairman of the Hamilton County Democratic party. “It is slowly turning blue and all I can say is wait until next year.”

There were 13 contested races in Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville and Westfield, the most since at least the early 2000s.

Welp.  This is certainly a major turn of events for Democrats in Indiana, especially one year after Donnelly's loss.  

[libertpaulian]

A very exciting night for Hamilton County Dems! To celebrate, I've made a map of preliminary results of the Carmel municipal elections, by city council district. The two GOP>90% districts in the lower right hand corner were uncontested.

It's not the prettiest creation on these boards, but nonetheless:   



Miles Nelson, who will represent the new West District (extreme left), is the first Carmel Democrat to ever be elected to municipal office. Four years ago, the general election was cancelled because the GOP candidates were all unopposed.

Amazing.

[libertpaulian]

Pete Visclosky to RETIRE:

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/visclosky-won-t-seek-reelection-in/article_fb96476d-783a-57d1-9e82-eb714dd50f38.html

U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-Gary, will not seek reelection next year, ending his more than three decade tenure representing Northwest Indiana in the U.S. House.


Visclosky did not give a specific reason for his decision in his surprise announcement that came on the 35th anniversary of his initial election to Congress on Nov. 6, 1984.


He instead recalled the work he's done in the federal government to support the domestic steel industry and organized labor, secure investments in transformational projects such as the South Shore Line, and improve quality of place "to benefit the only place I have ever called home."

For the Region Rats on here, this is big news.  Visclosky has been in Congress since before I was born!  He's a Northwest Indiana icon.

I'll bet you my entire bank account that McDermott jumps in the race now.

[libertpaulian]

If Hill faces either a suspension of his law license or disbarment, the AG race becomes Safe R.

[libertpaulian]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

I think Democrats can still do somewhat well in more sparsely-populated areas if they put in the work and do retail politics right.  A Dem got elected mayor of Monticello, for instance.

[libertpaulian]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

I think Democrats can still do somewhat well in more sparsely-populated areas if they put in the work and do retail politics right.  A Dem got elected mayor of Monticello, for instance.

Again, looking forward to 2020, if this is a good Democrat year, and the GOP are larger than ever due to good performance in smaller city and town races not driven by the national political narrative, do the Democrats even approach having a strategy outside of large urban areas? Zody's quote in HPI this morning, he's full-on identity politics. You have to get to sentence 4 before he stops talking about what color or gender people were born as.

I think the Indiana Dems would be wise to look at Andy Beshear in Kentucky.  He was able to excite urban and suburban voters while not totally scaring off rural and small-town voters.

[libertpaulian]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

[libertpaulian]

The Indiana Dems should run Gill again.  I think it's a prime pickup opportunity for them, especially now that incumbency won't be a factor, and his district is rapidly trending D.

[libertpaulian]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

Increased from 0% to 1%?

My best friend from law school lives in Carmel.  He's been attesting to the changes in HamCo for quite some time.

[libertpaulian]

If Pete is the nominee, IN-05 may be one of the most closely-watched battlegrounds on Election Night.

[libertpaulian]

If Pete is the nominee, IN-05 may be one of the most closely-watched battlegrounds on Election Night.

How do you feel about Attorney General?

If Hill is the nominee, Tossup.  If the Indiana GOP replaces him or if he gets suspended or disbarred, then Likely-to-Safe R.

[libertpaulian]

Todd Huston of Fishers has been voted on as Speaker-Elect by the Republican caucus in the State House. He'll take the gavel in March per Eric Berman of WIBC Radio.

Is he more establishment or more tea party/Trumpy?  I know Bosma was pretty establishment.

[libertpaulian]

that now makes 12 years and counting since the Democrats had a contested primary on a statewide ballot that was not the presidency

Well, there's certainly no reason for Democrats to reconsider their statewide strategy! Zody is a genius.

Our state literally has NO Democratic bench.  The only credible statewide candidates at this point are Hogsett and Buttigieg.  And one of those two is running for a much higher office.

[libertpaulian]

If Pete doesn’t become President the DSCC are going to be knocking on his doorstep on November 4th.

The Senate ? LOL

Buttigieg would get trounced by Young, there is no way that Buttigieg wins a statewide race with all the liberal positions he is now espousing. And even without them winning a senate seat in Indiana would really hard for him, why do you think that he is running for president ? Because a gubernatorial run would have been suicide.

I think Buttigieg's political future is him getting out of Indiana. He lives in Walorski's congressional district which is winnable for a Democrat, and he chose to run for DNC Chair and for President. I never thought he'd win the nomination - still don't, blacks hate him too much considering their percentage of the Democratic primary electorate - but he's looking to be the VP nominee or some kind of cabinet/agency chief job.

The Indiana Democratic Party is effectively a dead organization statewide. I was looking at candidate filings yesterday with a buddy in Whitley County (county west of Fort Wayne) and not a single Democrat filed there for anything except State Convention Delegate.

Thank Zody for that.

[libertpaulian]

Zody is running for State Senate this year, aiming to replace a retiring Democrat.

Honestly, I hope this means the end of his tenure with the state party.  If the party wants to regain its relevance, it needs a chairman who knows what the hell they're doing.

[libertpaulian]

For those wanting to parachute Buttigieg in to the Indiana governor's race, filing has already closed. So the only way it can occur is by doing an Evan Bayh Special of Myers wins the primary, then withdraws, and the State Democratic Committee selects a replacement.

Buttigieg is likely to run for President again (or at least another major office), and if he wants to be successful in winning any office in the future, he needs credibility with African-Americans.  If he wants to build such credibility, taking out the man who would be Indiana's first Black Governor wouldn't be a very good idea.  (Yes, Holcomb has a 99.999% chance of re-election, but it's all about optics.)

[libertpaulian]

For those wanting to parachute Buttigieg in to the Indiana governor's race, filing has already closed. So the only way it can occur is by doing an Evan Bayh Special of Myers wins the primary, then withdraws, and the State Democratic Committee selects a replacement.

Buttigieg is likely to run for President again (or at least another major office), and if he wants to be successful in winning any office in the future, he needs credibility with African-Americans.  If he wants to build such credibility, taking out the man who would be Indiana's first Black Governor wouldn't be a very good idea.  (Yes, Holcomb has a 99.999% chance of re-election, but it's all about optics.)

I expect him and his husband will put their house in South Bend up for sale and move somewhere he has a more likely chance of winning.

Howey's take:

Mayor Pete's next move will come ... nationally

Monday, March 2, 2020 9:14 AM

By BRIAN A. HOWEY

 INDIANAPOLIS - There was almost a comical reflex in some Indiana media quarters in the wake of Pete Buttigieg's withdrawal from the Democratic presidential race Sunday night. There were tweets of the former South Bend mayor shoving Woody Myers aside to make a run for governor this year. Other than vowing to "do everything in my power to ensure that we have a new Democratic president come January," he did not announce an endorsement of Joe Biden or any other plans.

 Buttigieg passed back in 2018 on what would have been a natural progression of running statewide for governor, opting for the presidential race after running for Democratic National Committee chair in 2017. Buttigieg has clearly placed his future in a national context. He had run statewide for treasurer in 2010, losing to incumbent Republican Richard Mourdock. He would have had to work hard at carrying Indiana in the May presidential primary, and this gay Democrat almost certainly won't take on Holcomb with an $8 million money lead this year.

 A Democratic gubernatorial with little party infrastructure in place and no hope of bringing in Democratic General Assembly majorities offers no enticement for a presidential candidate to recalibrate at the state level, thus the notion of retraining his sights on Holcomb after dropping out of the White House race is absurd.

 As far as taking the nomination from Myers to challenge Gov. Holcomb, that's just a silly notion that backfired in 2016 when Evan Bayh shoved aside Baron Hill in the U.S. Senate race. Young easily defeated Bayh. Buttigieg has long disdained the notion of serving in Congress. He passed multiple times of challenging U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski and we would be shocked if he decided to challenge U.S. Sen. Todd Young in 2022. Most government executives find serving in the U.S. Senate insufferable.

Buttigieg tweeted Sunday, "We launched our campaign because Americans are hungry for a new kind of politics that brings us together. And together we'll beat this president and build the era that must come next." Nationally.

 Buttigieg would seem to be a lock for a Democratic cabinet post for any nominee not named Bernie Sanders. He established enough cred to vividly be in the 2024 or 2028 presidential race conversation, depending on what happens this November. That's why his supporters began chanting "2024!" at the Century Center last night.

 MSNBC's Joe Scarborough tweeted, "Great politicians know when to charge ahead and when to stand down. Mayor Pete ran an incredible campaign that exceeded all expectations. His ability to make the difficult decision tonight tells me he will be a major player in American politics for a long time to come."

 Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne added, "That was an extraordinary exit speech by
 @PeteButtigieg — so extraordinary that it wasn’t an exit speech at all but the beginning of the next chapter of a life that will make a difference in the lives of others. Good to hear a politician willing to defend the nobility of politics."

 What comes next for Mayor Pete will play out ... nationally.

I don't think so.  South Bend is a key part of his identity, in his blood, much like how El Paso is for Beto.

[libertpaulian]

I don't think so.  South Bend is a key part of his identity, in his blood, much like how El Paso is for Beto.

Then he won't get elected to anything ever again. His only future is a D.C. bureaucrat. The most winnable thing he has is Walorski's seat and he has zero interest. Beyond that is statewide.

The Democrats are a dead party in this state until they drastically change some points of view on some items. They're dead enough to the point of the right other organization can come along and displace them for 2nd party status everywhere except Marion and Lake Counties and a couple college towns. Their local organization in most counties is a complete joke.

His only hope, honestly, is either Biden's VP or a Cabinet spot.

[libertpaulian]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

IN Dems are so screwed.

Story of our lives since 2014.

[libertpaulian]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

IN Dems are so screwed.

Story of our lives since 2014.

2010. Bayh's unexpected retirement from the Senate was probably the catalyst for the party falling down a flight of stairs.

Todd Rokita shared something interesting on Facebook that was published in Indiana Legislative Insight. Talked about the race, Harter seems more likely to be selected than Westercamp if Hill falters, but Rokita could be a last-minute entry...or he could wait to run for governor in 2024 against Weinzapfel then.

2010 sucked, but Donnelly did win in 2012.  If Gregg would have put a bit more substance into his campaign besides his whole "I'm a down-home country boy from Southern Indiana!" shtick he probably could have beaten Pence.

[libertpaulian]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

IN Dems are so screwed.

Story of our lives since 2014.

2010. Bayh's unexpected retirement from the Senate was probably the catalyst for the party falling down a flight of stairs.

Todd Rokita shared something interesting on Facebook that was published in Indiana Legislative Insight. Talked about the race, Harter seems more likely to be selected than Westercamp if Hill falters, but Rokita could be a last-minute entry...or he could wait to run for governor in 2024 against Weinzapfel then.

2010 sucked, but Donnelly did win in 2012.  If Gregg would have put a bit more substance into his campaign besides his whole "I'm a down-home country boy from Southern Indiana!" shtick he probably could have beaten Pence.

Donnelly won in 2012 because the Republicans nominated a dumbsh**t that defeated a very popular Senator.

The whole actions of 2016 can't be discounted either. We entered the year with a 3-way Senate Republican primary leading to maybe a Tea Party Representative going on to November and a Governor Pence that was going to face a tough re-election fight from a Democratic Party eager to face him, to the 3rd place in that Senate primary replacing the resigning Lieutenant Governor, and then himself becoming the nominee for Governor when Pence was selected for the vice-presidential nod. And national events made it a wave year for the state GOP.

Really when was the last good year for Indiana Democrats, 2008? I know Donnelly won in 2012 unexpectedly, but that was before I moved here and Daniels won re-election easily and the state legislature was still Republican.

I think this year could have some silver linings for Indiana Dems if Hale wins, Hill gets nominated and then loses, and the Dems pick up a significant number of state house of representatives seats.  The latter one would be interesting, maybe exposing some of those Marion and Hamilton County districts as dummymanders.

[libertpaulian]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

IN Dems are so screwed.

Story of our lives since 2014.

2010. Bayh's unexpected retirement from the Senate was probably the catalyst for the party falling down a flight of stairs.

Todd Rokita shared something interesting on Facebook that was published in Indiana Legislative Insight. Talked about the race, Harter seems more likely to be selected than Westercamp if Hill falters, but Rokita could be a last-minute entry...or he could wait to run for governor in 2024 against Weinzapfel then.

2010 sucked, but Donnelly did win in 2012.  If Gregg would have put a bit more substance into his campaign besides his whole "I'm a down-home country boy from Southern Indiana!" shtick he probably could have beaten Pence.

Plus you had Ritz win her race, which was a sufficiently big deal for the GOP to decide there must never be another election for SoPI again.

Honestly, if 2016 hadn't been such a curveball, I still maintain Gregg could have won —and I imagine he'd be the favorite for reelection in this climate. That would have given the party eight years to build up their bench for 2024. Instead, it looks like Dems are headed to being a permanent minority party, at least until demographics shift enough/some young up-and-comer steps forward to rebuild the statewide organization.

Do you think it's possible there could be a pickup of a significant number of state legislative seats?

I was looking through the state house (not state senate) districts on Ballotpedia, and a LOT of these GOPers in the Indy Metro won by 10% or less in 2016 and/or 2018.  These could be ripe dummymaners this fall.

[libertpaulian]

Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

IN Dems are so screwed.

Story of our lives since 2014.

2010. Bayh's unexpected retirement from the Senate was probably the catalyst for the party falling down a flight of stairs.

Todd Rokita shared something interesting on Facebook that was published in Indiana Legislative Insight. Talked about the race, Harter seems more likely to be selected than Westercamp if Hill falters, but Rokita could be a last-minute entry...or he could wait to run for governor in 2024 against Weinzapfel then.

2010 sucked, but Donnelly did win in 2012.  If Gregg would have put a bit more substance into his campaign besides his whole "I'm a down-home country boy from Southern Indiana!" shtick he probably could have beaten Pence.

Donnelly won in 2012 because the Republicans nominated a dumbsh**t that defeated a very popular Senator.

The whole actions of 2016 can't be discounted either. We entered the year with a 3-way Senate Republican primary leading to maybe a Tea Party Representative going on to November and a Governor Pence that was going to face a tough re-election fight from a Democratic Party eager to face him, to the 3rd place in that Senate primary replacing the resigning Lieutenant Governor, and then himself becoming the nominee for Governor when Pence was selected for the vice-presidential nod. And national events made it a wave year for the state GOP.

Really when was the last good year for Indiana Democrats, 2008? I know Donnelly won in 2012 unexpectedly, but that was before I moved here and Daniels won re-election easily and the state legislature was still Republican.

I think this year could have some silver linings for Indiana Dems if Hale wins, Hill gets nominated and then loses, and the Dems pick up a significant number of state house of representatives seats.  The latter one would be interesting, maybe exposing some of those Marion and Hamilton County districts as dummymanders.

Well I'm not voting for Hill at the Convention for precisely that reason. I haven't decided between Harter and Westercamp yet.

What's the ceiling though on how many State House seats they take, 5? 10? Well congrats, they went from Republican supermajorities to Republican big majorities. If there's going to be a Democrat year it's going to be this one, unfortunately for them our Governor has done a great job, their nominee - a former Health Commissioner in the middle of the largest health crisis in some time - is a complete non-entity, there's no Senate race, and in wide vast sections of the state the Democratic Party might as well be the Libertarians, because they have just as much chance of winning: zero. It's why I'm all gung-ho on a new party being formed to the right of Democrats, left of Republicans that can challenge the Republicans. How many years of failure does a party have to live through before they realize what they stand for is the problem? If they want to be a city and a couple well-to-do suburbs party only, great, they'll never win statewide or gain control of the legislatures ever again.

The left of the party rebuilding it, Courtney Tritch's candidacy and what an abject failure that was when compared to Tommy Schrader 2 years prior - a candidate with no money that was completely disowned by the party after he won the primary - told me they have no clue on what to do.

That's the problem.  Not to mention the Indiana Dems' bench is all but decimated.  The only three candidates that would even have a sliver of a shot- Buttigieg, Donnelly, and Hogsett- aren't running, and for valid and obvious reasons.

[libertpaulian]

The problem with IN-05 is that it will be fairly easy to reverse the 2010 boundary changes that made it even remotely competitive in the first place and turn it back into a safe-GOP seat after this round of redistricting. Flipping IN-02 would require a landslide the likes of which hasn't been seen in living memory. As StateBoiler says, people here just don't like what the Dems are selling. (It doesn't help that the state party thinks we are still living in the late 80s.) Democrats won't win here again until the voters change, which may well be decades into the future.

What do you mean by living in the late 80s?  That they still think Southern Indiana is full of Blue Dogs just waiting for The Right Kind of Democrat™ to win them over?