Bold Predictions: September Edition (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 03:24:39 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Bold Predictions: September Edition (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Bold Predictions: September Edition  (Read 3784 times)
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,611
United States


« on: September 22, 2018, 10:01:03 AM »
« edited: September 22, 2018, 10:30:16 AM by libertpaulian »

HOUSE:
Democrats gain 65 seats in the House.  
A few surprise winners of the night are Bryce, Ojeda, Aftab, Axne, Bordeaux, Spanberger, Harbaugh, and Longjohn.  
Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter go down.  
All the vulnerable California Republicans lose, except for Young Kim.  
Steve King comes surprisingly close to losing, but the lack of an urban core in the district helps him survive.
The only Republican members of Virginia's congressional delegation come January 2019 are Cline, Griffith, and Wittman.  
Democrats pick up 3 or 4 seats in North Carolina.
Democrats pick up 2 or 3 seats in Florida.
Democrats win all the seats deemed vulnerable in Illinois.
Democrats don't lose any of their "vulnerable" seats.
One of Elise Stefanik, Lee Zeldin, or Peter King will be the shocking defeat of the night.
New Jersey and New Mexico will have unanimously Democratic congressional delegations in the new Congress.

SENATE:
Democrats hold all of their seats and flip NV, AZ, and TN.  
The closest race is ND, in which Heitkamp wins by a few hundred votes thanks to Cramer pulling an Akin.  
TX is as just about as close as ND, although I think either one wins by around one percent.
Donnelly will win in the ballpark of 2-4%.  
Baldwin will outperform Smith (MN).  
McCaskill wins by 2%.  
Tester does better than Donnelly.  
Nelson defeats Scott by the same margin that Scott defeated Sink in 2010.  
Kaine wins with over 60% of the vote, which mortally wounds the VAGOP down the ballot.
Manchin outperforms Tester.  
Stabenow and Klobuchar win by absolute massacre margins, which help to flip seats in their states.

GOVERNOR:
Democrats flip IL, IA, WI, MI, OH, KS, ME, GA, FL, OK, NM, AZ, and NV.  Republicans flip AK.  
Smith in SC and Dean in TN come short by low-single digits.  
Cordray wins by 2% with a little help from Sherrod Brown.  
Gillum wins by 3%.  
Abrams wins by 1-3% and barely avoids the runoff.  
Hubbell wins by low-single digits.  
Evers defeats Walker by the same margin that Walker defeated Barrett in 2010.  
Whitmer wins by 10-12%.
Kelly wins by less than 1%.  
Mills wins by low-single digits.  
Edmondson wins by 1-2%.  
Lujan-Grisham wins in the range of 9-11%.  
Garcia wins by low-single digits, riding on Sinema's coattails.  
Sisolak wins by mid-single digits.



Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,611
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2018, 01:07:06 AM »

Democrats win the national house PV by 12 points, giving them a total of 250 seats in the House, and 53 in the Senate.
I wouldn't say that's bold these days...
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 10 queries.