Which candidate is a better fit for Virginia?

[libertpaulian]

Looks like Clinton did better.  Obama's Virginia margin was equivalent to the national average in 2008, and his margin was 1% more Republican than the national average in 2012.

Clinton, however, was able to make Virginia 3% more Democratic than the national average last year.

[libertpaulian]

Clinton may have done better, but that doesn't mean she's necessarily the better fit for VA.  There's a couple problems with that conclusion.  First off, it doesn't account for the fact that VA is trending D over time, regardless of candidate.  Second, it doesn't account for the fact that Trump is about the worst possible fit for VA, so the state was almost guaranteed to trend more in '16.

The only way you'd ever know for sure is if you could control time and space and somehow run Obama against a candidate, then go back in time and run Clinton against the same candidate in the same year.

The only thing we can conclude with any certainty is that both Obama and Clinton are relatively good fits for VA as far as Dems go, and Romney is a pretty good fit as far Republicans go.

I'm wondering if Kasich or Rubio would have won VA.  I mean, sure, they lean more to the right, but they aren't all about "Drain the Swamp" like Trump is.  "Drain the Swamp" to NOVA people probably means "I'm gonna lose my job once he gets sworn in."