How does GOP establishment respond if Newt wins SC?!

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that would be a sure sign the Romney candidacy is tearing the GOP apart.  So, if Newt winning in SC drives home the fact Romney appears to be fatally flawed in the eyes of the GOP base, to the point where the GOP base is willing to risk losing in 2012 in order to keep from nominating Romney, does the establishment start ringing the phones of someone like Paul Ryan?!

If a Newt win in SC doesn't do it...what if Newt wins both SC and FL...then what does the establishment do?

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seriously, folks...it is a revelant question.  Does the GOP establishment dump Romney and dial 911 if Newt wins SC or SC&FL?

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I don't think that anybody could jump in the race now and win.  In the hypothetical situation of a brokered convention (still a longshot in my opinion), the establishment may try to coax out a compromise candidate.

so, you're telling me the GOP establishment is going to stick with Romney if Newt wins SC&FL?!  Doesn't the GOP establishment understand the GOP base doesn't really want Newt, but simply prefers to die with Newt than to live with Romney...and that all we want is a viable social-fiscal conservative candidate like Paul Ryan?

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The establishment already put all the chips on the table with Mitt.  It's too late.

It is not too late, SC is only the 3rd contest, and FL is only the 4th.

someone like Paul Ryan could win in the South and elsewhere.

The GOP establishment is, once again, underestimating the Tea Party's hatred of the GOP establishment.  And if the GOP establishment thinks they can play chicken with the Tea Party with Romney, they need to understand the Tea Party doesn't believe it has anything to lose.

Even though the Tea Party has a gun at the head of the GOP establishment, the Tea Party is willing to compromise with someone like Paul Ryan, and if the establishment isn't willing to compromise, then the Tea Party is willing to roll the dice with Newt.

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Well, what could the establishment do?  Anybody who enters the race right now wouldn't be able to file in time for most of the primaries.  If there is something I'm missing, I'd love to hear it.

what about a write-in campaign.  How many of the states allow write-ins?  A strong social-fiscal conservative with a simple name like "Paul Ryan" could work in a write-in.

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What Lief said. If Newt doesn't get out after FL, Mittens and the Establishment will blast him out.

I'm not so sure.  I don't think Newt's rebound has much to do about Newt, rather I think it was to do about Mitt.  Mitt's problem isn't Newt - it's Mitt.

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I thought you can't be in Super Tuesday after FL, so there would be no point calling 911 after FL, they would have to do it after SC?

explain

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that's why I'm talking about a write-in campain.  Santorum ceases to be a factor after FL.  So, if someone enters late, the race for the GOP nom would be:

LateEntryWriteIn
Newt
Romney
Paul

..and since Paul is obviously not going to win the nomination, the choice becomes:

LateEntryWriteIn
Newt
Romney

...I think this is VERY doable, even though it is unorthodox.  And if Newt wins SC, I think there is going to be some phone calls made this SaturdayNight and Sunday.

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As the discussions of first SC and then VA have shown, many states don't even allow write-ins.

ok, that is the kind of info we need:  which states don't allow write-ins?

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The analyses I've seen at NRO and TWS show that at most, a new entrant could win about 30-35% of the delegates, most likely resulting in a Romney coronation.

what is that based on, how many remaining states allow write-ins?

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got this from Rasmussen:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_rhodes_cook/2012_republican_race_the_field_may_not_be_closed

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granted, only a very few could pull this off.  Paul Ryan is one of the few who could.

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Dial 911 to do what???  It'll either be Romney or Gingrich (and it'll be Romney), so just let it play out...

I don't think the GOP establishment could stomach the thought of Newt winning.  And if Newt wins SC&FL, then you have a full fledged civil war within the GOP being played out in public:  the Tea Party vs. the establishment, with the establishment having everything to lose and the Tea Party having nothing to lose.

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Paul Ryan

Are you sure you want to roll the dice with the House Budget Committee Chairman?  Maybe picking someone who is term limited or who is not running for reelection this year would make more sense.  Someone like John Hoeven or Mitch Daniels.

Mitch Daniels would bleed more support away from Mitt than Newt.  And Hoeven is too unknown (heck, I don't even know that much about him).

If a write-in candidate is going to work, he was to be able to cripple BOTH Mitt and Newt, thus making peace between the establishment and the base.  Paul Ryan could do that.

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John Hoeven is an ex-Democrat who ran a state bank and only switched parties to get elected. Would the GOP base accept that?

All the GOP would be looking for in a compromise candidate is a nice face and a clean slate.  A long primary battle will have people turning to Hoeven out of voter fatigue without reading up about him.

Ah....NO!

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If Newt draws close to Mittens in Florida in the polls, I suspect the GOP establish will start to lash out at Newt big time. Newt terrifies them.

what else could they throw at him?...hell, his ex-wife couldn't even dent him

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This write in fantasy thing of yours jmfcst is just one of your most "out there" ones of our rather ample repertoire of such kind sir. The world that you want is just so cruelly often not the world that you get is it?  

I'm just doing my part to save the Party, Torie. 

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Just chat up anecdotally just how much of a loose cannon and poor manager that he is for starters. And someone should get up banners attached to planes to fly over the Fruited Plain showing those national polls that Newt has a 30 point deficit in his favorability rating, something like 30% favorable, 60% unfavorable - by far the worst of any candidate. That in particular is why they are so terrified of him. He could pull down a lot of Pub candidates with him this year if he secures the nomination.

The Tea Party's No. 1 target is the GOP establishment....always has been.

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A late entrant would probably just increase the odds of a brokered convention.  But then I guess your response would be that the late entrant would be anointed  at the brokered convention.

yep