So GOP's majority will be down to 3 votes.
Isn't it 3 right now without Santos? Wouldn't it be down to 2?
No, because a vacancy is less powerful than a vote for the other side. Right now it's 221R, 213D, 1 vacant, so R's can afford to lose 3 defections in a vote (4 defections would result in a tied vote).
With McCarthy leaving, it will be 220-213 and they could still lose 3 defections. If Santos is replaced by a Democrat (which is not a sure thing) and no other changes happen, they would then be at 220-214 and could lose only 2 defections.
According to Wikipedia, Brian Higgins (D-NY) and Bill Johnson (R-OH) are plan to resign in February and March, respectively. So we would be at 219-212. Should Suozzi win back his old seat, we'd be at 219-213. The other two specials will happen later I guess. The GOP will be at 220 again once this special election is called; I hope Newsom drags it out like RDS did in FL during the 117th congress.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Changes_in_membership
