Never thought I’d say this, but I think Ryan has an easier path than Beasley or Barnes. It won’t matter because it’s just the wrong year/environment for him, but this really does seem somewhat comparable to MO-SEN 2016 (likely won’t be quite as close as that race, but Vance is underperforming generic R by ~10 points here, which is probably the worst underperformance of any Republican in a competitive race, even more so than Oz's).
Easier path doesn't necessarily mean the election will be closer though. I think Ryan will lose by more than Barnes and Beasley. Not a huge difference, but still by more.
