FL-UNFL: Demings + 4

[Sir Mohamed]

And this is exactly why I keep my hopes for November down, despite the polling picture showing Dems overall in a solid place, given the fundamentals.

DeSantis up by 7-8 pts. - which seems legit - and Rubio down by 4 pts. in the very same survey? Seriously, who's gonna believe that? Lots of polling has become a joke.

Likely/Safe R.

[Sir Mohamed]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Well, Rubio won by 8 pts. in 2016 against an opponent who was pretty moderate and considered very "electable". Trump just barely won on the same ballot. And 2016 was still kind of a neutral year overall while 2022 may not be (too early to tell). The GOP also seems to have a better ground game in FL today compared to 6 years ago and generally seems to move right. Consequently, I'm not buying this will be a competitive race. Demings would be lucky to lose by 5-6 pts. My guess is Rubio by 8-9 pts while DeSantis wins by 9-11 pts.

[Sir Mohamed]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Well, Rubio won by 8 pts. in 2016 against an opponent who was pretty moderate and considered very "electable". Trump just barely won on the same ballot. And 2016 was still kind of a neutral year overall while 2022 may not be (too early to tell). The GOP also seems to have a better ground game in FL today compared to 6 years ago and generally seems to move right. Consequently, I'm not buying this will be a competitive race. Demings would be lucky to lose by 5-6 pts. My guess is Rubio by 8-9 pts while DeSantis wins by 9-11 pts.

Rubio tan in 2016 with BENGHAZI Hillary that's why Portman won by 20 stop comparing 2016/22 Biden isn't Hillary

We nominated McGinty instead of Sestak and lost PA and RoJo in WI didn't win but by 3 pts

HRC did a lot better than Rubio's opponent in 2016. The senate election had nothing to do with the Benghazi stuff.