Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Big companies are shutting down Russia business en masse and pull out.

https://twitter.com/sam_baker/status/1499393496083361797

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1499388739319119885

[Sir Mohamed]

I feel like if Russia wasn't a nuclear power and NATO/American forces were involved through drone strikes and special forces, Russia would get kicked out and totally humiliated in a matter of days or 1-2 weeks. Mr. Putin would have to beg Biden, Macron and Zelensky for mercy.

[Sir Mohamed]

Link to the last batch of Logical's maps? the search function in this board is horrid

Wikipedia is a pretty good and constantly updated map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1499409342197608450?t=CDPHtHLsmXx6OMHBWL...
I'm starting to think that Putin has actually gone insane.

Big IF true, almost reminds me of Hitler in the bunker in March/April 1945, tbh.

I really hope the FSB or apparatus takes him out rather sooner than later. Even if you're ignorant enough not to bother about Ukraine, he's totally destroying Russia's economy and reputation that will take decades to rebuild. Is an occupation with massive resistance and asymmetric warfare worth it? Putin is totally insane.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not sure how much truth there is to claims by Rubio and others that Russia is doomed and can't sustain this much longer. It could be propaganda to boost Ukrainian resistance. That said, looking how inept the Russians conduct their operation, I think the narrative Russia could just overroll NATO members in Eastern Europe with ground troops was always wrong. Very likely NATO could quickly handle an intervention, and if Russia wasn't a nuclear power and American drones and special forces got involved in Ukraine, Mr. Putin would get his a-- kicked out very quickly.

My only concern is that Putin will do exactly what he has done in Aleppo and elsewhere; just bomb one city after another into the ground. He's obviously not getting Ukraine under control or be celebrated as the liberator, but his ego doesn't allow to just pull out. So he'll go all in and order the worst war crimes imagineable in this day and age. Question is only whether Russian power elites have the influence, ressources and will to take him out. Or whether the PRC has enough at some point and is able to pressure him into exit.

[Sir Mohamed]

Russia bringing in the elite reinforcements:

https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1500101026015289347?s=21

When Russia sends its trucks, they're not sending their best.

[Sir Mohamed]

"Air superiority", sure, Jan.

That said, as much as I "enjoy" every Russian plane shot down and every Russian tank destroyed, I still feel kind of bad for many of the 20-something year old Russian soldiers not guilty of immediate war crimes dying in this senseless war, leaving parents, friends and spouses behind, for nothing. Mr. Putin for sure doesn't give sh-t about them.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Refugees/status/1500822336672608262

[Sir Mohamed]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

The issue with Russia's demands really isn't the Crimea/Donbas recognition, but the fact that Russia gets to demand who the PM gets to be. Also, what are the borders of the DPR/LPR? Why should Ukraine give up the entirety of those oblasts? The people outside the former line of control clearly have no desire to join the Russian-backed separatist states and it would be particularly offensive to make places like Mariupol to join the DPR considering what they have gone through in this war.

This.

This war has forged a Ukrainian identity across the Dneiper that has likely destroyed any pretence of pro-Russian feeling or identity. No doubt in Crimea and Donbas too where it may have been somewhat genuine.

Russia hasn't accepted this new reality. Ukraine have a stronger claim to these areas as a result.

Tbh, I wonder whether there is any possible outcome of the war, in which Russia loses to a degree they have to return Crimea and Donbas? I'd actually like to see this, and guess Ukrainians feel strongly about that.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1501170083976126464

Is this for real?

I think it's more likely to be fake than not, tbh. At least needs further validation. That said, I wouldn't be that surprised to find out it's real. It's for sure obvious Russians and Mr. Putin in particular don't give a damn about their soldiers, who are sent to die for nothing. They're not even moving the dead bodies back to Russia. We're moving heaven and earth to return dead soldiers back home to America.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1500417894491983876

Is it even confirmed this is the Russian army moving stuff? Almost hard to believe they're that inept and pathetic.

[Sir Mohamed]

The good news (news that I never, ever expected to read in the NYT when Russia unleashed the dogs of war):




And in addition to Putin having no hesitancy to target civilians, the bad news:



“Brutal tactics.” Is there some point when the news and images of the slaughter of civilians deemed in the way or expendable pawns to Putin, becomes just too much to bear for the Western mind to stomach? Is there any red line out there at all as to that issue?

Yeah. If we are all the sudden not seeing thousands of civil casualties but tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties, the responsible thing to do would at least create a no-fly zone to protect evacuations.

The question then is when the no-fly zone will actually happen, which I'm still skeptical of. I'm afraid we have to be prepared for another Grozny or Aleppo, where Putin just bombed the cities into the ground.

[Sir Mohamed]

Russia has now likely lost more troops than the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1501860795843416068

Would be huge, though I'm still skeptical. Ukrainian figures are most likely an exaggeration to boost their fighting moral. Didn't the US estimate Russian losses at around 4k 2-3 days ago? Seems more plausible to me.

Anyway, it speaks volumes how Putin is ready to send his soldiers to death for his delusional Greater Russia fantasies.

[Sir Mohamed]

War crime apologia is always vile but seeing an official embassy account engage in it is on another level.

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1501913563073556498
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1501916418245279746
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1501919224201158656

Tbh, if I was prez and PM of a country and Russian embassy did this, I'd declare the responsible as persona non grata or just close the embassy alltogether. We don't need diplomatic facilities abused for propaganda purposes on behalf of war criminals.

[Sir Mohamed]

So I was just skimming through the Russia invades Georgia thread we had and it reminded me that that invasion took place around the same time as an Olympics in Beijing.  Weird heh?

The obvious conclusion here is that the Olympics must never again be scheduled in Beijing.

Yup, though should never have been for other reasons already. It's a horrible policy to prop up authoritarian regimes and dictatorships with sports events. But since IOC and others are corrupt through and through... well.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

Everything here needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That being said, it could be a risky move and cause backlash in Belarus. If Russia actually needs help from them, you know they're in big trouble.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1502221544499601411

In their position, I'd be very careful with any cup of tea.

[Sir Mohamed]

No sh**t, Sherlock.


https://mobile.twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1503111934136172549

So if the dude disappears in the coming days or weeks, we know why.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like the PRC denies reports about Russia requesting military assistance.

https://twitter.com/aguilarcamin/status/1503364613953499136

[Sir Mohamed]

Wonder if we won't start seeing large scale Ukrainian counter attacks then.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1503713698879348738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw... 

Tbh, I hope so. Usually the guerilla ratio was the invading force needed 10 times the menpower? It's not a pure guerilla war at this point, though 200k would be significant.

[Sir Mohamed]

Macron offers French asylum to woman disrupting Russian State Propaganda TV with anti-war protest.

https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1503742582752526336

[Sir Mohamed]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

pRooF tHaT sHE's ruNiNG 4 pREZ iN 2o24!!1!

Surprised VP Kamala Harris isn't on the list, lol.

[Sir Mohamed]

Apologies if someone already posted but some interesting results from the Russian poll published in WaPo last week:

"DO YOU SUPPORT OR DO NOT SUPPORT THE MILITARY OPERATION OF RUSSIA ON THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE?"
(age w/net support/oppose:)
18-24:29/39
25-30:37/30
31-35:45/24
36-40:52/29
41-55:63/22
56-65:71/14
66+:75/16

(locality)
city >1+M:48/31
city 500k-1M:56/31
city 100k-500k:56/24
city 50k-100k:63/23
city <50k/rural:65/16

(career stage)
studying:36/31
working:56/24
neither studying nor working:49/28
retired:69/17

(if working, for a federal, municipal, or private enterprise)
federal:61/19
municipal/local:77/12
private employee:49/29
private owner: 64/20

(financial situation in past year)
worsened:47/32
stayed the same:62/20
improved:67/15

> Russian polls

I guess FL Quinnipiac polls are more accurate.

[Sir Mohamed]

CNN says the NATO "deconfliction" line with Russia is not working.

Sorry, what? Can you please expand on that Torie?

That is the text that I saw on the CNN screen. I have no further knowledge. It seems to be a different phone from the infamous red one.

Addendum: More about the phone line: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/h_b9af65dfcc767f7d5c70fb6e1ee440c6

US Department of Defense recently established a direct line of communication with its Russian counterpart to avoid possible missunderstandings in conjunction with military actions/exercises of both sides. That was done to ensure to avoid a potential unintentional escalation.

I read about this a week ago or so, and that the line is primarily used by Americans.

[Sir Mohamed]

One thing I don't get about Putin's strategy in the past few days is the firing of missiles with apartment buildings being the deliberate target with the whole world watching. That makes it next to impossible for the West to appear to be rewarding Putin for doing that, and that is not going to intimidate the Ukrainians per se, and it will not kill enough Ukrainians so that their mindset becomes irrelevant.

Is Putin nuts, or are the missiles meant to hit something else, and Russia's guidance systems need work?

I think he wants to "break" civilians here and show them who has the military might. He's just doing the same appalling stuff as he did in Grozny 1999 and Aleppo post-2015.

The West has sanctioned him to the stone age anyway, so he doesn't really care about that. He also feels certain enough NATO won't intervene directly because nobody in DC or Brussels wants to risk WWIII.