Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Sir Mohamed]

Is my observation correct that Bolsonaro is pretty much doomed, especially against Lula?

[Sir Mohamed]

How would Bolsonaro react to a defeat? Could we see events unfolding looking like a redux of the 2020 transition period in the US? I don't know enough to say how credible polling in Brazil is and there's still about 10 months left, but it appears Bolsonaro is pretty much done.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any explanation why the polls underestimated Bolsonaro that much? Is that similar to Trump? Some voters just not telling pollsters their actual voting intention or are Bolsonaro voters harder to reach?

Perhaps a runoff is still better than Lula barely cracking 50%, because Bolsonaro would have challenged that. I just hope Lula wins the runoff by at very least 53-47%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Michel Temer, the former president who took over after Dilma's impeachment, was going to endorse Bolsonaro, but it seems he gave up after his daughters asked him not to. That said, he'll also not support Lula, he'll just stay neutral.

Well, the dude that had like 4% approval rating while in office not making an endorsement is hardly a setback for Bolsonaro.

[Sir Mohamed]

The head-to-head polls have significantly tightened... at this rate, I think Bolsonaro has a higher chance to win reelection since at least the 2nd year of his term. I have a gut feeling he pulls this off, although my mind says that Lula will prevail by an underwhelming margin.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedBrasil/status/1581802920827199491

God, so embarrassing. Also, the debate format is just... whatever.

I don't understand a single word of Portougese, but that was possibly the weirdest TV debate interaction I've ever seen in my life.

[Sir Mohamed]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

[Sir Mohamed]

This race seems to come down to the wire. The polling is too close for comfort.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good riddance, Messias!

Still kind of shocking an outright fascist got nearly 50% of the vote again. Especially since all the polls throughout the year saw a clear Lula lead. Makes me wonder whether Lula could have won 2018 in the first place.

Anyways, a very good news for climate and the rainforests.

And wait, Lula's VP is the dude that ran against him in 2006? Interesting.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any word if/when Bolsonaro is going to concede? Will he just shut up and leave on New Year's Eve or are we headed for a Brazilian version of Trump's loss?

[Sir Mohamed]

I know, it's extremely early for that, but is it possible Jair Bolsonaro runs again in 2026? I think it might also become an issue whether Lula runs again or not, due to advanced age. So basically this is also a post-2020 Biden-Trump situation, Brazil edition.

[Sir Mohamed]

This is really pathetic. His last lunch as president was at a KFC in Orlando.

https://twitter.com/Rkrahenbuhl/status/1609291532661563392?t=wegUha6pl1-3xdO3SZg...

"Florida man goes to KFC"