It seems that Caruso has the big Mo right now--is that correct?
His political background/opportunism aside, he does seem to be running a far better campaign than I'd expect from a billionaire, basically-Republican real estate guy in a major city in 2022.
I assume this is a classic example of how money does effect these races, plus a little bit of Karen Bass not exactly lighting the Democratic voters on fire right now.
It's hard to tell at the moment. UC Berkeley released a poll in the last week showing Bass leading Caruso 38-32 among likely voters. In a one-on-one race, they have Bass leading 49-35.
Things can certainly change in the next 5 months, but Caruso seems to have a ceiling in the mid-30s that he hasn't cracked yet.
https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/25/02/3bd6c0344da19cac7377d5c6782d/la-q10-12-toplines.pdf
Not sure, he could easily get 40-42% in the November election. I wouldn't even rule out an upset in the end. I guess a lot depends on how the campaign progresses into the fall.
