Afghan government collapse.

[Sir Mohamed]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

It took more than 2 years from the withdrawal in early 1973 to the fall of Saigon on April 30, 1975. Don't think it'll last that long this time, tbh.

[Sir Mohamed]

This was always going to happen, but I'm kind of shocked it did occur so fast. Tells you that Biden's decision to leave was the correct call. We should now make sure to get as much people as possible out who might be in danger. I'm not really buying that Taliban just seeks a peaceful transition of power.


https://twitter.com/axios/status/1426905059384872961

[Sir Mohamed]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

But it was a sham the whole time and were used as talking points for domestic support for necessary foreign policies to uphold USA national interests.   Anything else would be a amateurish policy for a Great Power.  I do not see why the USA should not ideally try to get Taliban regime to be a second Saudi Arabia. 

Nations should be left to decide their own political and social systems.  If they are wrong they will figure it out on their own.  Any attempt by an outside power to impose such systems will merely delegitimatize those very ideas as a foreign imposed import.

I think at some point the Taliban need to find - if not allies - at least some kind of stable relationships once aid from the USA and our allies are cut off. You can't run a country into complete economic misery and maintain support among enough people.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think at some point the Taliban need to find - if not allies - at least some kind of stable relationships once aid from the USA and our allies are cut off. You can't run a country into complete economic misery and maintain support among enough people.

Agreed. And that is clearly where PRC-Russia will come in and provide funding and support for the Taliban regime to stabilize things on the economic front  in return for access to mineral wealth as well as its transportation network.  The question is will the USA just sit back to allow this to take place or will it use its still considerable power to influence and economic access to the new Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

Question of course is what is there to gain for us; and secondary, I doubt the PRC or Russia will view this as kind of a real partnership. They're more likely to force their own terms on Afghanistan and whether Taliban are ok accepting this is another question in itsself. Time will tell.

[Sir Mohamed]

Appears there will be an immediate takeover, no transitional govt:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1426931730414555138

[Sir Mohamed]

While it's clear US forces and the Biden Admin were ill prepared for this, it's too easy to shift the blame only on ourselves and our allies. This situation is equally - if not more - a catastrophic failure of a corrupt Afghan govt that never managed to win enough public support, an incompetent military leadership and outright quitting members of the Afghan forces, who technically are superior to the Taliban militarily.

Another major NATO mistake was clearly not to take roles of other regional players into account, Pakistan in particular. Taliban would have never gotten that strong without political, military and logistical support from outside. Unfortunately, we never went forcefully enough after their supporters. To extinguish a fire, you first need to cut off the oxygen.

[Sir Mohamed]

I still don't trust the Taliban over women's rights a slight bit. And neither should anyone else. Even if they were somewhat "better" than pre-2001, women will still be treated like fourth-class citizens who aren't allowed to leave home without a man, let alone take more senior jobs.

Indications are that there's an inner divide within the Taliban between kind of lesser extreme elements and the old fashioned clerics. The former for sure have dominated public communications for now, but we have to watch where it ultimately goes. Not in the right direction, that much is guaranteed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like Ghani is in a Gulf State:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1428001307856707590

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1429084913354121221

[Sir Mohamed]

Explosion outside Kabul airport.

Casualties unclear so far. Possibly an attack by ISIS.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1430893253801386001