March 2021-- Which is Most Likely?

[Sir Mohamed]

#1. Trump floats running, but never actually declares his candidacy because he's under massive legal scrutiny and him losing his major communication platform makes messaging pretty difficult. But he will still be an influential voice in the candidate selection and his endorsement will matter significantly.

We also need to remember how old Trump is and that he's not known for having a healthy lifestyle. He may not be able to run an energetic campaign as he did in 2016.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump hints about running through all of 2023 and into 2024.  As is typical, a social conservative (Cruz?) wins over a splintered field in Iowa.  NH becomes a showdown between two moderates (Haley and DeSantis) vs the insurgent IA winner.  RDS narrowly ekes it out in NH, gets Trump's Twitter endorsement that next week, and then steamrolls SC and Super Tuesday.       

DeSantis and Haley are not moderates, lol. And how does Trump endorse via Twitter? His ban won't be reversed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump hints about running through all of 2023 and into 2024.  As is typical, a social conservative (Cruz?) wins over a splintered field in Iowa.  NH becomes a showdown between two moderates (Haley and DeSantis) vs the insurgent IA winner.  RDS narrowly ekes it out in NH, gets Trump's Twitter endorsement that next week, and then steamrolls SC and Super Tuesday.       

DeSantis and Haley are not moderates, lol. And how does Trump endorse via Twitter? His ban won't be reversed.

DeSantis and Haley are moderates in a GOP primary, just like Trump was

And "Twitter" is just a stand-in for whatever social media platform Trump is on in 2024.  Although, I think it's likely his ban could be lifted prior to 2024.

How are DeSantis and Haley moderates? Latter may be nicer in tone, but they all have embraced Trump and the Tea Party's right wing agenda. By no means are they moderate. Even Kasich is conservative on a lot of issues, though calling him a moderate would be much more accurate than the 2 named above.