OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Sir Mohamed]

Surprising, since he's for sure safe in the GE. Possible this increases the chance for him to vote for Trump conviction.

Let's just hope Jim Jordan won't replace him.

[Sir Mohamed]

There's literally nothing to see here

Yup, but I suspect people will keep overreacting to polls that show this race to be somewhat competitive until fall 2022. Then the GOPer will start pulling ahead and end up winning by 8 pts.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Rs said themselves they want to nux the Filibuster in 24 to expunge Trump impeachment from the record and they're going after Brown if they win here in 22 the runner up Vance or Mandel will target Brown in 22 that's why Ryan needs to win here

There is nothing impressive about Vance

This race is pretty much Safe R here.

[Sir Mohamed]

As already said by others, this could indeed be competitive in a 2nd Trump midterm, but partisan winds are just blowing too strong this time around for Ryan to have a serious shot. He might get within 10 pts, but not much closer. And Vance will be a downgrade from Portman.

While this ad isn't bad, I don't think Vance's past will matter that much. Trump has already proven that notion. It remains the fact that OH is a heavily R-leaning state and we're about to have a D-midterm with a POTUS that's somewhat around or slightly above 40% approvals.

[Sir Mohamed]

The other day I looked on here thinking that we thought Ryan had a good chance. I was very disappointed to see how wrong I was. I hope he can at least keep it closer than usual for Ohio.

Lol stop Dooming

All I know about this race comes from this thread. Everybody here is making it seem like it's a safe R race, so I assumed they were right when I was looking here the other day.

It's basically just common sense, imho. OH voted for Trump by 8 pts. and has barely elected any Dem candidate in a statewide race over the last decade. 2022 is not shaping up to be a blue wave year, so any "Generic R" candidate shouldn't have much trouble winning this seat. Partisan gravity and the national environment easily outmatch Ryan's strength as a candidate. Races for national office have become very rare in which the personal brand of a candidate than overcome a state's lean.

The few polls we have are pretty much meaningless because either too many undecided or, more importantly, always underestimated GOP support. Especially with months to go before the election. In a best case scenario, Ryan gets around 44-45% and loses by a Likely margin such as 53-45%. That's the absolute best we can hope for.

[Sir Mohamed]

Considering that Ryan has come out against the student loan action, I won't feel as bad when he loses.

Yeah, it’s disappointing how many Democrats are parroting Republican talking points on this issue.

Sadly they have on other issues as well (like guns).

[Sir Mohamed]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

Vance probably doesn't even know or care. There was nobody at his campaign to tell him.

Yup, and former should actually be disqualifying for any candidate already. The dude is really a horrible candidate and it's kind of embarrassing that he maintains a significant chance to win.

[Sir Mohamed]

I know this is semantic but I wouldn't consider Tim Ryan as an upset anymore: the polls are showing clearly he's leading after all.

I don't consider the polls being correct as a upset either

I would still consider it a major upset since polls have a track record of being off in OH over recent cycles. They constantly underestimated GOP support or just barely nailed the Dem vote share. Additionally, we're talking about a Trump +8 state in a national environment that's not as blue as 2020.