PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Sir Mohamed]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Whoops! Ahahahhaha

The senate was probably always Fetterman's destination. It's very likely he just ran for lt. gov. as a stepping stone for the senate again and gain statwide name ID.

Meanwhile, state AGs often get elected gov.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1536090139172257793

Rules for them, not for me.

Just sad that most likely not enough people will actually care.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is Dr. Oz changing his campaign attitude?

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1539590501975965697

[Sir Mohamed]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

Not really, though. Which Fetterman views are that outside of the mainstream? I would argue and counter that Oz has more extreme "views" at this point, especially on issues like abortion.

Sure, but perception often is more relevant than actual positions. Remember that in 2016 HRC was somehow seen as the "more extreme" candidate than Trump?

That said, I'm not arguing Fetterman is a weak candidate or running a medicore campaign; the opposite is true while Oz is bad candidate running a joke campaign (so far). And if latter wins without turning his campaign around, it almost solely be due to national environment.

[Sir Mohamed]

I now do wish McCormick won the primary and he may have without polls showing Barnette in 2nd lol.

McCormick wouldn't have been any better, in fact he may have been worse. TV personality is slightly more appealing than a hedge fund manager lol.

Yeah, Fetterman dodged a huge bullet with Barnette. Had she started her climb just a week or so earlier she'd be the nominee, and we'd be looking at a lean R race.

Wasn't she a far-right conspirancy weirdo? I guess Oz is still somewhat better than this.

Despite his lackluster fundraising, he can still narrowly win this race if the wave is big enough to carry him over the top. But this election definitely looks more winnable for Dems than it did 4-6 months ago.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'd say it's time to rename the thread?

Suggestions: "Mr. Braddock vs. the New Jersey Doctor"; "The 51st vote?"

[Sir Mohamed]

Just saw a Youtube pre-roll ad as I'm heading out the door this morning. 

Quote: "Dr. Oz will deliver results, not partisan rhetoric."

The first time I've seen Team Oz embracing an explicitly moderate angle. 

I think he figured it would be self-evident. Campaign has been a disaster. Heard whispers he regrets running.

From where are you getting that? Are you involved in the GOP ground operation in PA?

That said, I wouldn't be totally surprised. Can't imagine him withdrawing though.

[Sir Mohamed]

It also would not surprise me if Oz truly did not have his heart in this. I really think initially he thought he would be able to parachute in and use the 'Dr Oz' fame to his advantage and the accolades he got from people during that show to boost his candidacy, and I think now he may be realizing that it was a total miscalculation.

Yup, and he possibly assumed the national environment alone would carry him over the finish line.

[Sir Mohamed]

With the new POS (R) poll, 538 now gives Fetterman a 68 in 100 chance of winning. That's slightly more than Ron Johnson, who has a 67 in 100 chance. LOL

[Sir Mohamed]

With the new POS (R) poll, 538 now gives Fetterman a 68 in 100 chance of winning. That's slightly more than Ron Johnson, who has a 67 in 100 chance. LOL

From what I can tell, it looks like they haven't added it yet? Unless mine is just not refreshing fast enough

Yup, true. I thought they did because there wasn't another PA poll the last few days and Fetterman was at 65 in 100 not too long ago.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ok, NOW i'm convinced Oz is trying to lose and full of Fetterman plants

https://twitter.com/LeverNews/status/1560042929481256960

Sen. Mehmet Oz (R-NJ PA) plans to introduce the Medicare Privatization Act of 2023 right after swearing in on January 3, 2023 as co-sponsor with Sen. Blake Masters (R-AZ).

[Sir Mohamed]

With less than one month until mail ballots go out, Oz's team is now going full-negative

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1562514329802395648

Tasteless attacks on your opponent's health will almost certainly backfire. Many people either have such health issues themselves or closely know someone who does. I don't think any of them would find this appropriate, let alone change their vote as a result. The opposite is much more likely, imho. Just looks like Oz is digging deeper and deeper into that hole he got himself by running a horrible campaign.

Really speaks volumes about the desperation within the Oz campaign. If that is all they got to counter, you know it's not going well at all.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes, I should have specified. This will likely help Oz a bit with the Trump votes, of course.

However, after 1/6 and since, Trump is clearly a net-negative in swing state races, and Oz's whole "possible" path was gleaming off some college+/suburban votes and him appearing with Trump at a rally (while trying to keep his distance since the primary ended with the website scrub, etc.) to me is the death knell. Trump is toxic in a ton of areas that Oz would theoretically need to win.

Given Trump's terrible summer in the news too, this makes it even easier now for Fetterman to attach Oz to Trump.

I'm just not sure whether Fetterman even wants to focus all too much on Trump instead of Oz himself. Sticking too much on Trump may just draw him (and other Dems) criticism for not having a specific message other than "orange man bad". It's not that he or Dems don't have a message beyond that, though the media often likes to set this narrative.

[Sir Mohamed]

How is no one else worried about Fetterman? He clearly has something wrong - and aside from obvious concern about him. It could cost Dems this seat

I doubt there is anything medically wrong with him in the long-term. Speech and auditory problems are normal for a stroke recovery. Most stroke victims just don't have their immediate recovery in this harsh a public spotlight.

However, I wouldn't underestimate the Republicans ability to make gains off of that and seed doubt in Fetterman. There's a reason they're pushing so hard on this point, they think it's their best weapon. They might be wrong but they might also know what they're doing. It does worry me but I hope that Oz's obvious flaws as a candidate will render it moot.

The question, imho, is whether that would switch many voters? This kind of campaign attitude is tasteless and anyone not voting for Fetterman because of that might not have anyway.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1567956665751818243

1. Imagine if a Democrat said this.

2. Oz is not an immigrant.

Nikki Haley is out of her depth. The Republican base doesn't particularly like her, and any crossover appeal to Democrats she had, arising from the Charleston shooting, was eliminated by her service in the Trump Administration.

She's yesterday's news.

[Sir Mohamed]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

What do you expect from someone who calls himself a "doctor" and then mocks his political rival for having a stroke. This is the GOP we're dealing with today.

[Sir Mohamed]

For the last two weeks now literally every poll (with the exception of the one Marist one) has been showing between Fetterman +2 and Fetterman +5; and there have been a *lot* of them. Don't necessarily know what this would indicate if anything but I suspect a few of the more recent ones are herding at least a little bit to the range.

And that Marist one wasn't too far off, their LV model had Fetterman +7, so not too far from the +4/5's

That one had Fetterman topping 50 though, and Oz still stuck around 44%, which appears to be around his ceiling lately.

If there aren't 3rd party candidates on the ballot, Oz will for sure get more than 44% of the vote. I think he'll get at least ~46.5%, possibly as much as 48-49%. Meanwhile, I see Fetterman anywhere between 48% and 52%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Oz hasn't led a poll for... how long? Ever?

Unless the numbers change the final weeks, polling would be really broken if Oz somehow still ended up winning. With basically no poll giving him a lead. That said, WI-2016 and NC-2020 would be proper comparisons.

[Sir Mohamed]

Oz hasn't led a poll for... how long? Ever?

Unless the numbers change the final weeks, polling would be really broken if Oz somehow still ended up winning. With basically no poll giving him a lead. That said, WI-2016 and NC-2020 would be proper comparisons.

Susan Collins didn't lead a poll ever.

No race is a sure thing.

Forgot about that one, but yes. Last time Collins led 2 polls were in April and June, all conducted by R-pollsters.

[Sir Mohamed]

I just don't get how any supposedly intelligent person could vote for this monster.
https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1579988067288748032

At least Dems are playing hardball now. Usually only the GOP does so and worked well for them all too often.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think this is the first time I've seen Fetterman use the clip of Oz with Trump. Surprised it hasn't been more prevalent.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1582739279796895745

Because just using this line of attack would feed the media narrative Dems' only sellingpoint is "orange man bad". I think Fetterman has handled this reasonably well. Attack Oz as elitist and promote popular stances he's taking such as minimum wage, jobs and abortion. You can use Trump in attack ads from here and there, just don't focus on him too much.

[Sir Mohamed]

I didn't have time to watch the debate yet, but it seems Fetterman didn't do that well? Ugh. This race really has me on the edge.

[Sir Mohamed]

Would not be surprised though if Trafalgar uses the debate as an excuse to push out an Oz lead, finally.

Tbh, that's what I expected all along, regardless of the debate. Same with other competitive senate races. Consequently, 538's Deluxe Model will probabkly have an R-lead on the morning of November 8.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1587031682422644736?s=46&t=9EMTBE_...
It looks like the attacks backfired

Schumer said that.

If Fetterman loses, it will more be the result of national environment.

[Sir Mohamed]

His math was off in the original, but we're now at the ~45% of 2018 by 10a

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589997437766479872

This seems a good sign for Fetterman?