PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Sir Mohamed]

Fettermans runs? ENDORSED!

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, Lamb running would be bad, because he opens up a vulnerable House seat. We don't need this and can't afford to lose more ground. Additionally, Fetterman is easily the better alternative here because we don't need another Joe Manchin type of Dem in the senate. Fetterman would add a crucial progressive to the Dem conference. Neither am I convinced Lamb would have a better chance to win the seat. Lamb needs to run 4 reelection to the House and keep us a swing seat.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wouldn't Cartwright open up a vulnerable seat in the House? And isn't he a boring dude?

I'm for sure backing Fetterman.

[Sir Mohamed]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

[Sir Mohamed]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

Is Wolf even endorsing?

I assume he will do so before the primary. Still a long time to go. But he and Fetterman seem to have a good relationship.

[Sir Mohamed]

Fetterman raised almost $4 million.

That's huge. Fetterman for sure has a base in PA and there's energy behind his campaign. That's good news for Dems. But as recent races elsewhere showed, just a ton of money isn't enough to win. Race remains a pure tossup and Dems' best chance for a senate flip next year.

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess this dude getting the GOP nomination would be great news for Fetterman. The GOP doesn't even try anymore. Past elections have shown that Trumpist candidates without Trump on the ballot don't fare well with swing voters.

[Sir Mohamed]

I honestly don't think Lamb has any interest in GOV, at least not right now

Yeah absolutely not. He has been explicitly linked to the Senate race. He's either running for that or he's running for re-election. The Gov nomination is Shapiro's and no other serious candidate has been linked to that race in a while. Jim Kenney was the last major name who was considering a run but that's gone completely silent.

I suppose Lamb running for senate would be bad news for Fetterman? Both he an Kenyatte are progressives and I would think Fetterman more appeals to moderate Dems.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is going to be an interesting primary. Still not sure whether it's a good idea for Lamb to open up a competitive seat in the House. Would have been better to run for reelection in my opinion. He'd be a formidable GE candidate and good senator; I'm rooting for Fetterman nevertheless.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is going to be an interesting primary. Still not sure whether it's a good idea for Lamb to open up a competitive seat in the House. Would have been better to run for reelection in my opinion. He'd be a formidable GE candidate and good senator; I'm rooting for Fetterman nevertheless.

It's quite possible his district is destroyed in redistricting, too.

Correct, though the GOP can't just draw him out with Wolf's veto pen?

[Sir Mohamed]

And this point I’m worried a competitive and expensive primary will cost us this seat (see 2016)

Only in a sense a weaker candidate wins the primary with a pluarlity. That said, I still expect Lamb or Fetterman to come out on top. I'm just undecided who's the better GE candidate. If I were in PA, I'd heavily lean towards supporting Fetterman.

[Sir Mohamed]

John Fetterman doesn’t have much electability without Wolf

On what are you basing this conclusion? I'm not sure Lamb is the most electable in this race. Fetterman for sure has an exciting background. If I were a PA resident, I'd very likely vote for him the primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

Parnell, Barnette, Gale, Dr. Oz - The GOP senate PA bench is literally a clown car.

Yup. National environment may still catapult one of these clowns into the senate though. That's literally embarrassing. We'll see.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, what a horrible GOP clown car.

[Sir Mohamed]

While I'm rooting for Fetterman, it's still unfortunate Tom Wolf isn't a decade younger. Otherwise, he could for the seat and would probably be favored even in a bad midterm environment.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, I feel like Fetterman's advantage is gone and Lamb favored for the nomination. It might not even be that close.

I'm still conflicted about the question who's a better GE candidate, though I'd vote for Fetterman in the primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is this my false impression not being from PA, or is Fetterman indeed just running a medicore campaign? I hope he'll improve, because I don't want Lamb nominated.

[Sir Mohamed]

The dude's communication style is funny for sure.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1507048097318379536

[Sir Mohamed]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

[Sir Mohamed]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Couldn't he just make a comeback in 2024 by running for the House again? Wouldn't be the first congressman to return after a failed senate bid.

[Sir Mohamed]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Couldn't he just make a comeback in 2024 by running for the House again? Wouldn't be the first congressman to return after a failed senate bid.

None of the Dems mentioned above ended up making a comeback by running for their old House seats.

But Ann Kirkpatrick and Deborah Ross for example did. I wouldn't count Lamb out here, though it's way too soon to speculate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Fetterman's answers to the jogging incident continue to suck, but he's right on almost everything else. Fetterman is quite a unique Democrat, and really can't be pinned to one wing of the party. I think he's our best bet in November.

I'd say he's a progressive Dem, isn't he? He's just focussing on the right issues progressive Dems can win broader appeal among the general electorate. He's staying away from the divisive stuff, unlike members of the Squad.

[Sir Mohamed]

Perhaps I'm too optimstic here, but this may be evidence that Fetterman may actually have shot. At least he shows up across the state, and if he can keep losses in rural areas somewhat down, it would be good.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1521221381446324226

[Sir Mohamed]

Lamb already endorses Fetterman, joining Biden:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1526770940272594944

[Sir Mohamed]

What will be interesting to see how Trump/Oz react if McCormick pulls this out by like 500 votes or something. Will Trump call fraud? Will he refuse to endorse McCormick?

Very possible. I could see Mr. Trump calling it a Dem plot to have the "weakest GOP candidate" running for the seat.