CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine Gray Davis if that is struck down. I doubt that'll happen though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Doubt it matters much; Faulconer won't finish 1st among the GOP candidates I think. Which would be kind of embarrassing for a recent SD mayor.

[Sir Mohamed]

At this point, Newsom has played his cards pretty much just how he needed to. He will be retained and it probably won’t be particularly close in the end.

I think likewise. If history is any guidance, the polls at this stage are not that reliable and as of recently I have heard people more talk about the effort. Other than my neighbor, who's always been a GOPer, I don't know anyone who's voting Yes, though I wouldn't use this as an indicator as I live in a Titanium D county.

The only reason this gets remotely close is very low turnout from Dems.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm still undecided who to vote for on Question 2 (will vote on election day, as always). For sure I vote No to retain Newsom. I'm undecided between Paffrath (D) or Faulconer (R). I hardly can bring myself to vote for a GOPer here as I dismiss the entire recall, though Faulconer is the only non-extreme replacement candidate who at least could handle the job. Not that he'd get much done, but he has governing experience.

Elder isn't a serious candidate in my opinion and he previously voiced strong support for the orange buffoon and said he's not to be blamed for 1/6. I'm glad when this clown show is over and Newsom can go back to focus on actual business.

[Sir Mohamed]

Looking how this turned into a circus and the potential someone getting elected with 25% of the vote or so gets me to a single conclusion: As soon as it's over, the legislature needs to repeal the recall law entirely. The gov is elected for 4 years and ending is term before it has expires should only be possible with impeachment for clear violations.

[Sir Mohamed]

I believe Newsom will retain his office. Let's consider for a moment Elder (or another R) took office, what would be his strategy for winning next November? Even if he became governor this year, he'd be gone 15 months later.

Any GOPer wouldn't accomplish much, though I could imagine Faulconer actually working with the legislature. That said, he won't win the replacement vote.

If Newsom were recalled, his politicial career would for sure be over. The 2022 Dem nominee for governor would be Kounalakis, Breed or maybe Schiff.

[Sir Mohamed]

DeJoy is sabotaging the mail-in voting and rigging the recall in favor of the GOP. That's why I think Newsom loses.

What proof do you have of this?

The same instinct that told him Mr. Trump would win reelection in a landslide and the GOP would hold a trfiecta again in January 2021.

[Sir Mohamed]

Will 2022 be Newsom vs. R or Newsom vs. D?

Almost certainly Newsom vs. R because no highprofile Dem announces a challenge, so none will overcome the 1st place voter getter among GOP candidates.

There will be a bunch of registered Dems running, but neither will get above 3-4% due to the lack of name recognition and campaign ressources (which is particulary difficult in a state as large as CA).

[Sir Mohamed]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

Could we be looking at Paffrath 2022?

Or, more seriously, Steyer &/or Villaraigosa 2022?

What kind of governor would Steyer be?

Presumably just a generic Democratic Governor, although perhaps with an even more significant focus on climate change.

Yup, though the real question is how he'd handle the bureaucracy and legislature. CA isn't an easy state to govern and as Brown proved, experience is of value here. Steyer doesn't have experience in public office.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1435230609476050945?s=21

I wasn't actually aware the polling picture was this clear in 2003, so Davis losing the recall was anything but a surprise. Under other circumstances, the dude would have already lost reelection in 2002, but the GOP nominated a right winger instead of LA Mayor Riordan, a moderate. Riordan or, if he ran, Schwarzenegger, would have defeated Davis with ease.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437545443026739207

Ah, here we go again, my friends! The GOP just doesn't lose elections anymore. And when they do, it's rigged.

This must have been the same illegal voters that cost the orange buffoon the NPV in 2016. B'cause, you know, he didn't lose by 2.9 million to HRC.

[Sir Mohamed]

Congrats to the GOP for millions of dollars wasted and months of efforts all for nothing.

While I never expected Newsom to get ousted, I'm proud of my state for a clear cut decision to reject this recall. The GOP should just give it a rest or start coming up with serious candidates again that believe in science and basic norms. The county results for sure prove that HRC's and Biden's wins weren't flukes.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, OC is gone for the GOP. I predict Newsom will win there at least 52-48% in 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe Newesome anyways.

I dunno why the OP is saying he is "having problems". While not everything is perfect, especially with CA's high cost of living, the state has a major budget surplus and the economy is roaring back. CA is nowhere it was in 2003 or 2010.

[Sir Mohamed]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

You can almost track the trajectory of the CAGOP just by their gubernatorial candidates:

2006: Incumbent Governor from Los Angeles
2010: Businesswoman from Silicon Valley
2014: Investment banker from Orange County
2018: Businessman from Orange County
2022: State Sen. from Lassen County

By the same token for Dems:

2006: State Treasurer from LA..
2010: Former Governor from the Bay Area (East Bay)
2014: Re-Election
2018: Lt. Governor from the Bay Area (SF)
2022: Re-election

So 2026...hmmm, which Bay Area sort will it be this time?

Eleni Kounalakis, London Breed, Fiona Ma or Rob Bonta?

Yup, but remove Breed from the list. I think she's more likely to replace DiFi in 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Results can also be found at the SoS website here: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/

Newsom currently at 59% of the vote with 62% in, facing Brian Dahle (R) in Nov.

All other Dems seeking reeletion, including Padilla, have a major lead.

Don't need to tell you who I voted for

[Sir Mohamed]

Results can also be found at the SoS website here: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/

Newsom currently at 59% of the vote with 62% in, facing Brian Dahle (R) in Nov.

All other Dems seeking reeletion, including Padilla, have a major lead.

Don't need to tell you who I voted for

Newsom at 56.3% now, Dahle a distant 2nd at 16.8%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Results can also be found at the SoS website here: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/

Newsom currently at 59% of the vote with 62% in, facing Brian Dahle (R) in Nov.

All other Dems seeking reeletion, including Padilla, have a major lead.

Don't need to tell you who I voted for

Newsom at 56.3% now, Dahle a distant 2nd at 16.8%.

Seems like this is the final number?

If so, Newsom slightly overperformed Jerry Brown in 2014, the first election with the jungle primary and the only other one so far with a Democratic governor running for reelection.

There won't be a final number for weeks.

Yup, CA has always been embarrassingly slow on that. That said, I don't expect that much movement in final percentages.