The margin you'd expect in a national environment like this. AZ will probably end up with ~ Biden +3.
No McSally/Kelly Numbers?
McConnell better start hunting for a new 2022 Senate option since Ducey is out.
If Dems win the senate this November, the GOP is unlikely to regain a majority in 2022, even with Biden as prez. Other than AZ, only NH and NV are potentially competitive races with D-incumbents. On contrary, Dems have pickup opportunities in PA, GA (assuming it won't flip this time), NC, WI, FL and IA if Grassley retires. OH and MO are most likely out of reach, especially with a Dem WH. 2024 leaves Dems in a good spot as well. Especially by considering they perform better downballot in presidential years; even 2016 ended up with 2 senate net gains. WV will likely be gone then, but FL opens another pickup opportunity. So my take is Dems will most likely retain senate control to at least the 2026 midterms if we manage to flip the chamber this year. The main priority for Dems in 2022 should be to retain the House.
