Arizona (PPP): Biden +4

[wbrocks67]

Biden 49
Trump 45

Their last poll in March had Biden +1.

https://www.afscme.org/press/press-releases/2020/20200718-PPP-Arizona-Results.pdf

(also Yikes @ Trump's 42/52 approval and double yikes @ Ducey's 26/59 approval rating)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ plus WI, MI and PA flips, that's what it looks like

[Person Man]

Clearly outside of the MoE.

[BobbieMac]

Puts Biden at +10 nationally on UNS.

[Person Man]

Puts Biden at +10 nationally on UNS.

I think between either that or potentially Biden + 5 or 6. We don't know how strong the trends are this. For all we know, there won't be any trends until certain states start flipping GOP that didn't originally flip.

[Webnicz]

Sounds like that ducey 2022 campaign is dead. the AZ bench just got even smaller for republicans.

[Buzz]

Really thinking this will be the closest state.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

No McSally/Kelly Numbers?

McConnell better start hunting for a new 2022 Senate option since Ducey is out.

[Sir Mohamed]

The margin you'd expect in a national environment like this. AZ will probably end up with ~ Biden +3.

No McSally/Kelly Numbers?

McConnell better start hunting for a new 2022 Senate option since Ducey is out.

If Dems win the senate this November, the GOP is unlikely to regain a majority in 2022, even with Biden as prez. Other than AZ, only NH and NV are potentially competitive races with D-incumbents. On contrary, Dems have pickup opportunities in PA, GA (assuming it won't flip this time), NC, WI, FL and IA if Grassley retires. OH and MO are most likely out of reach, especially with a Dem WH. 2024 leaves Dems in a good spot as well. Especially by considering they perform better downballot in presidential years; even 2016 ended up with 2 senate net gains. WV will likely be gone then, but FL opens another pickup opportunity. So my take is Dems will most likely retain senate control to at least the 2026 midterms if we manage to flip the chamber this year. The main priority for Dems in 2022 should be to retain the House.

[Hammy]

Going to (albeit cautiously) point out that Arizona was one of the few states PPP was actually relatively accurate on in 2016--having Trump 44-40 in June and 46-43 in August--underpolling both Trump and Clinton by about the same amount with a very small edge no Trump. But there's not room for Biden to be underpolled and still go to Trump with these numbers.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

In line with expectations.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bidmentum!

[MT Treasurer]

The margin you'd expect in a national environment like this. AZ will probably end up with ~ Biden +3.

No McSally/Kelly Numbers?

McConnell better start hunting for a new 2022 Senate option since Ducey is out.

If Dems win the senate this November, the GOP is unlikely to regain a majority in 2022, even with Biden as prez. Other than AZ, only NH and NV are potentially competitive races with D-incumbents. On contrary, Dems have pickup opportunities in PA, GA (assuming it won't flip this time), NC, WI, FL and IA if Grassley retires. OH and MO are most likely out of reach, especially with a Dem WH. 2024 leaves Dems in a good spot as well. Especially by considering they perform better downballot in presidential years; even 2016 ended up with 2 senate net gains. WV will likely be gone then, but FL opens another pickup opportunity. So my take is Dems will most likely retain senate control to at least the 2026 midterms if we manage to flip the chamber this year. The main priority for Dems in 2022 should be to retain the House.

Don’t buy IA-SEN 2022 being winnable for Democrats after two years of a Democratic presidency/trifecta. Even FL and WI are debatable, although they’re certainly more competitive than IA.