The absentee/early vote thread

[Ebsy]

So consensus is NV and VA are looking great for Clinton, IA and OH looking poor and NC and GA are ambiguous?

North Carolina is looking very good, Georgia is hard to say because of oddities with the racial data.

[Ebsy]

Wow, the surge is real.

[Ebsy]

Final number for day 3 of early voting in Clark County is 34,599 (was 30,000 in 2012).

[Ebsy]

Texas had nearly 8 million votes cast in 2012.  A ~50% increase in turnout would bring that to 12 million.  To bridge a 1.25 million gap Democrats would need be to winning ~67% of those new 4 million voters.

Is it possible?  Maybe, but they really will need to have more R->D converts from the original 8 million to help make it possible most likely.

Or a collapse in GOP turnout.

[Ebsy]

Yeah the doom and gloom seems to be lifting in Iowa, much as it did in Maine.

[Ebsy]

So the conventional wisdom seemed to be that early vote was good for Trump in IA and OH, and great for Clinton everywhere else. Now it seems the reasoning on Ohio is conflicted depending on who you talk to, and the Iowa advantage is slipping away.

Apparently the models of the early vote in Ohio are pretty good for the Democrats.

[Ebsy]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

lol that's one (wrong) way to interpret the numbers.

[Ebsy]

Day 4 number for Clark County, Nevada was 33,610, up from 30,931 in 2012. Democrats added another 5k votes to their lead, and are currently ahead by about 27k votes. They ended up ahead by about 40k votes at the end of week 1 in 2012, so they appear to be on track to pass that.

[Ebsy]

Isn't comparing raw vote problematic due to 4 years of population growth? Particularly for a state like Nevada.

The percentages now are similar to 2012, and you are right, Clark County has added 150k voters. Obviously we'll know more at the end of the week when we see the final numbers and the partisan breakdown, but there is 0 evidence of a lack of enthusiasm in early voting in Clark County.

[Ebsy]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

I don't know about the numbers at this point in 2012, but the final numbers in Oregon were 752,722 Democrats, 602,090 Republicans, 352,001 NAV and about 112k in other parties.

[Ebsy]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

These numbers have nothing to do with the early vote... ?

[Ebsy]

Wasserman mostly has no idea what he is talking about.

[Ebsy]

Adding the polling places created a huge surge in Guilford County

https://twitter.com/HPEpaul/status/791744287998353408

Will be interested to see the final numbers this evening.

[Ebsy]

We won't know the final Clark County numbers until later. Ralston has tweeted that turnout was slowing down before only to see Clark County numbers surge to record highs by 9 PM.

[Ebsy]

Ohio is depressing.

The modeling of the early vote has Democrats doing comparatively to 2012.

[Ebsy]

I think we'll pretty much know where things stand after Souls to the Polls on Sunday.

[Ebsy]

You can't accurately measure what black turnout will be until Souls to the Polls on Sunday.

[Ebsy]

All signs point to a very high turnout election. Good news for Democrats, of course.

EV is becoming more popular, so probably no. Hard to say now.

What does that even mean?

[Ebsy]

from michael:

turnout up everywhere...besides midwest.

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

[Ebsy]

I believe Michigan is a state where Republicans typically outpace Democrats in absentee voting.

[Ebsy]

Things are looking good in Nevada.

[Ebsy]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

Yeah, it's important not to read too much into Ralston's initial updates.

[Ebsy]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

These repeated victories in Washoe are a big deal.

[Ebsy]

IS EVERYONE READY FOR SOULS TO THE POLLS?!?!

[Ebsy]

The collapse of the Trump campaign in Nevada has certainly been a sight to see.