Yes (IA will be more Republican than VA in 2016), but I think she'll either lose or win decisively.
Clinton is honestly the perfect candidate for Virginia and will carry it easily.
Just like Romney was an excellent fit for NH, Warner and McAuliffe were supposed to win in a landslide, etc. etc.
Except they did up winning in non-presidential years and in a presidential year. Virginia won't be in doubt for long on election night and once it and Nevada (which Clinton will also easily carry) are called, the election will be over. Who cares about Ohio, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa when Clinton doesn't need to win any of them to win the election?