100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« on: November 09, 2023, 09:17:21 PM » |
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It's hard to say what states pro-life would win a referendum because of two big questions:
-Is it conducted with off-year, midterm, or presidential turnout? The higher the turnout, the better the pro-life side will do (since the pro-abortion side is more enthusiastic about voting right now).
-Is it a "right to abortion" or a "no right to abortion" referendum? I think the "no" side of both of those does a couple points better than you'd expect.
In presidential year turnout, I think the pro-life side can win a yes/no referendum in Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and North Dakota. Kentucky and South Dakota would probably be dependent on which side is "no" with presidential year turnout. South Carolina isn't totally out of the question either.
While it wouldn't win a yes/no referendum, the pro-life side would do a lot better than you'd expect in Georgia, probably just losing by a few points.
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