I think you guys really underestimate how hard of a floor there might be with Southern suburbanites. All they're doing is reverting to the "norm" of America and becoming more of a swing demographic like their Northern counterparts. Even if the GOP literally moves to the left of Josh Hawley on economics and becomes this "working class" party, you're still going to have a VERY high percent of Evangelical voters in these suburbs who are simply Republicans first AND educated suburbanites.
Yeah, suburbs in the South have huge numbers of evangelicals. In addition to my main church, I go to a young adults (20s) ministry at a church in Williamson County. On any Friday night, there are probably 100-200 people there, and there's always social time as well, so I've gotten to know tons of people. Plus, people will gather for social events outside of Friday nights or our organized Monday Bible study too. Occasionally, conversations veer into politics. Not one person has ever even suggested that they were supporting Biden or offered left-leaning views, and this is a young crowd in the suburbs. Maybe there are a couple quiet Democrats, but there is still a very high floor in Southern suburbia, unless Republicans do something to alienate evangelical Christians.
