Electoral College: Lean R
National Popular Vote: Tossup
House Majority: Likely R
Senate Majority: Likely R
My Way Too Early Prediction:
Nikki Haley/Josh Hawley: ~315-320 EV, 49.9% PV
Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg: ~218-223 EV, 48.7% PV
Or a Democratic Party fracturing?
Either way could get this result, especially if the Harris/Pete campaign ignores Latinos.
I doubt it will be covid-specific in 2024, but my guess is that the economy is largely average. I do think that Republicans will try to go all-in on the Hispanic vote after seeing what gains with Hispanics did in Texas and Florida in 2020. Then, I think the combination of a further-left Democratic nominee and the lack of Trump himself will bring the suburbs back to a couple points right of their 2016 results (not quite all the way back to 2012 though). Those will be able to offset a slightly worse performance with the WWC, even in a state like Minnesota.
New Mexico is obviously the big bold call on this map. Honestly, I think Arizona might vote to the right of it at the end of the day, but I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP finds a pretty natural home in New Mexico after increased Latino outreach.
