Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.
Based on what?
How do you understand 21 million people? The common sense approach would be to look at the polls, look at the state's past voting history, and compare them to the national environment.
This is what political scientist do all the time, there's people that research this stuff heavily and it's the reason why these polls are out there.
