Biden's Ceiling In TX

[Nyvin]

Something in the 47-48% range.

[Nyvin]

Biden won’t do better than Beto, who got more votes than Hillary Clinton in a midterm environment.  There won’t be a groundswell because there’s no more room for Dems to grow in states like TX, GA and AZ compared to 2016. 

Texas has some of the lowest turnout in the entire country (literally in the bottom five consistently),  not to mention being one of the fastest growing states in the country at the same time.

How do you possibly fathom Democrats "have no more room to grow" from 2016?   That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

[Nyvin]

Biden won’t do better than Beto, who got more votes than Hillary Clinton in a midterm environment.  There won’t be a groundswell because there’s no more room for Dems to grow in states like TX, GA and AZ compared to 2016.  

Texas has some of the lowest turnout in the entire country (literally in the bottom five consistently),  not to mention being one of the fastest growing states in the country at the same time.

How do you possibly fathom Democrats "have no more room to grow" from 2016?   That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

From 2018.  Beto got more votes than Hillary, but still came up short while Republican turnout was down.  For better or worse, Dems’ 2020 electorate arrived two years early thanks to their superb organization and enthusiasm in the 2018 midterm contests.  

Even in 2018,  Turnout in Texas was around 47%,   during a presidential year that would be horrible turnout.   There's also tons of people moving to Texas every year.    Of course there's room for Democrats to improve, that's nuts to assume there isn't.

Y’all are really overestimating Biden’s chances in Texas, he could theoretically reach 46-47% but I highly doubt he can win 50% of the vote.

in reality, everyone is overestimating Biden's numbers in all states.

Based on what?