Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Nyvin]

I don't have much trouble creating the second Hispanic seat, I have more trouble with the three AA seats.   I think they'll have to all be plurality seats by 2022.

Kane+Kendall+DeKalb is almost perfectly going to be 1 district worth of population (just barely over) and it's a district that'd be trending left fast.  

Also it's possible to make a competitive downstate seat with the area between Champaign and Peoria.   The six counties again almost perfectly make up 1 district worth of population.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2527e48d-0332-4efd-b2af-2fe3e0383bba





The Underwood seat is 50.1% Clinton to 42.6% Trump,  by 2022 it should be Safe D (if it's not already).

The downstate Champaign-Peoria seat is 47.3% Trump to 44.2% Clinton, but would be trending D, by 2022 I'd say it's lean D.

The map would probably start out 12D - 5R but gradually become 13D - 4R.  Unless 2022 is a D wave year, in which case the downstate district probably flips right away.

[Nyvin]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do. 

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

[Nyvin]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

Travis itself cant even have 2 districts lol even after 2020.

Travis + Hays will be just over 2 districts by 2020.

[Nyvin]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813





11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

[Nyvin]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813



11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

Dems can’t afford to not have 13 safe seats in Illinois given what is going to happen in other states.

Well, Biden won that IL-13 district by something like two points (I got 49.4% Biden to 47.9% Trump...?) and I really don't see any better district to make downstate that doesn't involve a bunch of hideous tentacles all over the place.

I can't calculate IL-16 with the divided counties, but pretty sure it's a narrow Biden win too (~1-2%).   Both are trending D and Bustos is a great candidate.   I think it's pretty close to the best they can ask for given the circumstances.

[Nyvin]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813



11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

While I agree with you that 2 ear muff districs are no longer necessary to elect hispanic members, Chuy is not going to be happy with this.  The electorate will probably 50-50 white/hispanic, with the whites being city workers.  I think he'll be fine, but there are a lot of different interests going up against each other here.  If Madigan holds on, there is likely doa for the same reason, as it swallows all of the machine areas.  I think both Chuy and Madigan would prefer a continuation of the earmuff.  If Madigan is not Speaker in November, this changes things, but I think Chuy (who will have even more influence in this scenario) would still want an earmuff.

And that 5th district will probably elect a white too, which I don't think was your intention.

The 5th does elect a white dem (most likely), but it's impossible to draw two hispanic CVAP majority districts without going absolutely crazy on the north Chicago area.   You'd need some bizzare tentacle down to Aurora or something.

[Nyvin]

Created this 11D-7R map. 3 districts are considered competitive"

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ae6c9585-a3f2-4fb3-b678-912b74537033

Uhh..yeah, at least in the Chicago area this would not work at all,  you have no Hispanic majority seat at all (CVAP) and IL-1 in that map is severely over packed with black voters.

That IL-8 district is also obviously drawn to be favorable to R's.

[Nyvin]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

72% BVAP....?

[Nyvin]

I kinda like a simpler approach, but I'm pretty sure IL Dems are gonna be more nasty with the map.







https://davesredistricting.org/join/2b0341b9-976f-4289-9059-3fb07aad3415

I'm 100% convinced only 3 R sinks are needed downstate,  a 4th helps the map look nicer, but isn't required.

[Nyvin]

I’m sorry for the psephological blue balls this Tweet will produce since I assume no one here has access to this website.

https://twitter.com/greghinz/status/1394016308157730816?s=21

Not sure if there's a higher resolution available

So they actually are going to try to keep Bustos' seat alive and go for the St Louis to Champaign district.

[Nyvin]

Peoria to Bloomington and Springfield to Decatur makes sense for the IL-Dems to draw, but Champaign could've just been drawn by itself without Danville.  I know they tried to do the same gerrymander in 2011.   Seems pointless, you can draw a Senate district in the county and get two D house seats out of it.

Looks like a pretty brutal map overall I gotta say.

Definitely feels like downstate prioritized incumbents first, which included senate ones. Why not split Champaign and Urbania - they would both remain safe D and Madigan only packed the cities to prevent two university radicals from getting elected. Why sink stirling and go for less Democratic towns to the south of Galesburg? Why cut less Republican areas out of Jackson and add redder areas to Carbondale's east. House seat 95 makes sense in conext of the senate and incumbency, but why not have one seat in Sangamon and one with a tail? Dekalb now is in a Blue seat, but to preserve the previous LaSalle seat we get Sycamore and other dem areas left outside of blue seats.

The Collar however is brutally efficient. Woodstock in McHenry is outside a blue seat, unless 63 is meant to be a future gain, but everything else is utilized. It looks like D+1 in each suburban county at minimum from just comparing with the NYT map, maybe D+2 in DeKalb.

That Dekalb/Peru/Ottawa seat is...pretty nasty.

[Nyvin]

The district 2 judge is appointed and is up for election in 2022,  is that a retention election?

[Nyvin]

The district 2 judge is appointed and is up for election in 2022,  is that a retention election?

No, it will be a special election (along with District 3). Retention for Supreme Court judges only goes into effect after a judge has been elected in their own right.

So then a Dem challenger will appear on the ballot for district 2?

[Nyvin]

And Cook County aside, what is the rational for not moving some counties from the most over populated district, district 4, to the most underpopulated outside Cook, and in fact in the entire state by far, district 2, other than that they are all Pub?

Putting Winnebago and the other county would make 2 more overpopulated than the rest so that doesn't matter. If you put the rurals in the NW of the state then you block off Winnebago.  Also splitting Cook is literally not allowed .

You can add other counties than Winnebago in 2 to mitigate matters. Heck you can start by moving little old Boone County. You can also rearrange the ex Cook array of counties overall to reduce population deviation. Cook is not split, it just adds another county to that district. The split in Cook is to illustrate the arithmetic. It is not real. All that aside, can a state have rules that force a more than 10% deviation in district size per judge as it were? SCOTUS needs to tell us for judicial districts for partisan judges in particular.

They matched the lines to the circuit court boundaries.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_circuit_courts

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

o_O

I hope they know that IL has one of the earliest release dates for maps so they kinda set the precedent for the country.  

I'm not a fan of this honestly.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

o_O

I hope they know that IL has one of the earliest release dates for maps so they kinda set the precedent for the country.  

I'm not a fan of this honestly.

In that case, they should draw a 17-0 map and make sure that the shapes of one of the districts spells out "F**k you SCOTUS" to try to bait SCOTUS into overturning the map and setting a precedent against partisan gerrymandering.

Yeah, maybe the horrible map can be used to say "if you don't like it, pass HR1!"

[Nyvin]

Apparently the medium seat in the Senate is still to the right of the statewide vote and in the House it's almost exactly even.

I guess that just shows Republicans still have a massive geographic advantage in the state overall, it's just that the raw vote totals are so overwhelmingly Democratic that the IL Dems can overcome it (and obviously the gerrymandering helps too).

[Nyvin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1433158578311995398

So tell Senate Republicans in DC to pass redistricting reform nationally.

[Nyvin]

The Democrats would actually gain more net seats out of Illinois than Republicans will out of Texas with this map.