CA State House/Senate 2020 Megathread

[Nyvin]

Safe Dem Supermajority -> Tossup

Isn't a supermajority 54 seats?   And the Democrats currently have 61?    How can the Republicans possibly flip 7 seats?  

Besides AD-38 most of the marginal seats in the state are already held by Republicans,  there's not much out there for them to flip.

Honestly the same pretty much goes for the state senate,  what competitive seats are out there for Republicans to make gains on?   I sure don't see much.

[Nyvin]

Anyone know anything about AD-73. The incumbent Republican is in fourth place in the jungle primary.

Laurie Davies 27.6%
Scott Rhinehart 22.2%
Chris Duncan 18.4%
Bill Brough 17.6% (incumbent)
Ed Sachs 14.3%

I read somewhere that he was me too'd.

In June 2019, two women accused Brough of making unwanted sexual advances to them in public settings. Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett charged that Brough cornered her in a loca restaurant in March 2011, when both were serving on the Dana Point City Council, and pressed his groin against her. After she broke free and left, she filed a complaint against him with the city. Also, a Laguna Beach real estate agent who worked on campaigns for Bartlett and Brough, said Brough harassed her about five years ago before he was sworn into the state Assembly in 2014. Brough has denied the allegations.

[Nyvin]

AD-73 is the southern Orange county district,  Clinton only lost it by 6% and there was a lot of third party voting here for President which won't be a problem in the General.   It's also trending D pretty fast.

I'd say that could be competitive especially since it's looking like it'll be an open race.

[Nyvin]

Looks like the San Diego mayor race is going to be D vs D