2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[Nyvin]

Anyone think Republicans would be brazen enough to try this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b046fa7-ddd0-44e6-83d3-97a6073a9a5c

There's no Memphis AA seat,  that would violate the VRA.

[Nyvin]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-7 was almost in the same situation too.

[Nyvin]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

So just to repeat stop looking at the percentage change in the vote Trump won each district that takes in Nashville by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That's the trend to look at not how the percent changed. 2020 had a lot higher turnout than 2016 so these percentage changes are skewed and look worse than they are. If the best the dems can do is turnout more voters and lose by more than these should be safe.

Without knowing how much higher turnout was in 2020 that's kinda a useless metric though.  If  turnout is brought high enough pretty much any raw margin will increase, unless the district is trending so fast it's bound to be gone anyway. 

Besides that doesn't even tell the whole picture, once turnout is down again in the next cycle, does the raw margin stay the same or does the percentage persist with the lowered margins?

[Nyvin]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-7 was almost in the same situation too.

And the 4 Central TN districts combined were +16 McCain and +26 Trump 2016 and +23 Trump 2020.
Not at all comparable.

It might be worse since in 2008 the rurals weren't all maxed out for the GOP like they are in 2020.   Since the districts will be starting at 60-37 with the rurals already voting like 80 or 82% R then there's really nowhere for them to go but down.   Assuming the suburbia collapse continues, which we have every reason to believe will.

Unless someone can see Biden in 2024 winning Jackson county like Obama did in 2008?

[Nyvin]

Mark Green is one of the most partisan members of Congress.  Why would he show Cooper the map?

[Nyvin]

Well, New York being a D gerrymander is justified now.

I assume the plan is to put Rutherford into one district and then split Davidson up between the remaining three central Tennessee districts.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1481301971135086592

Pretty much exactly what I was thinking of for this.