2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Nyvin]

The Republicans are desperate to make sure a majority is winnable.

[Nyvin]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

I'm really hoping if nothing else they get rid of the stupid northern arm of VA-5.

Also Wittman probably doesn't want least change since that means pulling his district more into NoVA.   The VA GOP probably wouldn't mind giving him the northern rural parts of VA-7.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

"Working as intended"

[Nyvin]

It's dead Jim

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1450843639576412169?s=20

Working as intended.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1452362404751450116

[Nyvin]

Does a Democratic State Senate mean that the VAGOP won’t be able to gerrymander?

The Redistricting Commission is in the state constitution now, if the commission doesn't agree on the maps (almost guaranteed they won't) then the State Supreme Court does the drawing.

[Nyvin]

For the consultants sent to to the VA Supreme Court to draw the districts -

Democrats sent academics from Universities (all three are professors) who have worked on civil cases regarding redistricting before.

Republicans sent two partisans from the national party that helped draw partisans gerrymanders in other states, and a former Census Bureau advisor who's now part of a right wing think tank.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1457779329279037444

[Nyvin]

National Demographics Corporation is the right wing partisan group that the Ducey-Controlled commission in Arizona hired to draw R gerrymanders.   They're also the go-to group for local Republican controlled governments in California for redistricting.  

To say they have a questionable history is an understatement.

[Nyvin]

Are the VA GOP trying to goad the VASC to appoint Trende as the R master consultant by nominating two people that are completely unqualified for the role?  I noticed they did this strategy last time by nominating two partisans directly from the national party and then a third guy that was like, kinda sorta okay-ish.   

Basically pick two god awful nominees and then a C-rate nominee so the VASC has no real choice but to pick the C-rate (but still partisan) nominee?

[Nyvin]

IMO VA-1 and VA-7 are the only two districts that really matter.   VA-2 is going to be somewhere around tossup in any map that's made.

[Nyvin]

This map isn't that good for the GOP, they might win a few seats in 2022 but later in the decade they could be looking at a 8-3 delegation or maybe even 9-2 if Dems find a way to win that VA-5.

1 and 7 are definitely trending D.