North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Senate map with 25 Biden districts.  I don't know if some deviations are too high, I just made sure they're lower than 12k.  I kept most of the proposed map's county groupings the same.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/09fda123-ab7b-4a36-8a43-719f1bfea181

Why do you put black areas of Greensboro, Charlotte, and Fayetteville with white rural/suburban areas?

For Greensboro and Fayetteville - Because Blacks would still easily control the Democratic Primaries in those districts (literally all of them).

I didn't really change much about the Charlotte districts, I tried to just copy the proposed map, no need for any changes there.  (The Fayetteville districts are changed *slightly*)

Right, but it's also a gerrymander.

Why?  The Rockingham/Guilford district is a heck of a lot more compact that way,  the Fayetteville districts barely change (it's a difference of like 10-12 precincts) and still have the same overall shape.   There's no mandate that Black people are concentrated into districts beyond being able to elect candidates of their choice, which they can.

[Nyvin]

Because it violates communities of interest. Putting urban Fayettvile with rural Moore county reduces the ability of both to elect the candidate of their choice.

Moore/Fayetteville (Cumberland) is the county grouping on the proposed map.

[Nyvin]

They're afraid of Cabarrus and Union trending to the Dems so they put the rest of Mecklenburg westward.

[Nyvin]

Republicans won both state supreme court seats, so now have a 5-2 majority. NC is in for some brutal mid-cycle redistricting.

They have a 4-3 majority, one of the judges running was an R already.

[Nyvin]

So here comes NC's fifth map in less than 7 years

[Nyvin]

Chances are better than not that they just remake the 2021 map they originally passed.  It did leave NC-1 (then NC-2) as competitive but with an R trend.  The only exception might be removing Watauga from NC-14 now that Cawthorn is gone.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/politics/2021/11/04/redistricting-in-n-c---new-maps-approved--favoring-gop

[Nyvin]

Yeah for NC-01, I don't think a reasonably neutral 50% seat can be drawn using neutral metrics; you either have to dip down into both Durham and Raleigh to grab their black populations but with skinny arm into both to avoid picking up too much white population, or if you don't want to go into the metros having a district that has an awful arm down to Fayetteville, which visually just looks insane. Even then it's just *barely*. Someone's already shown the Raleigh-Durham northeast black belt population.

Here's the purely "rural" option, which is equally as hideous. 50.2% Black VAP, so a very small room for error to re-arrange a few precincts in the name of cleanliness ig, but it'll still look hideous.



NC really sucks in terms of VRA because proportionally black voters should get 3 districts, and while you can draw 2.5 or even 3 if you really try black performing districts, it's really hard to get a district actually above 50% without doing some crazy stuff.

Well, this was an accepted district in NC until 2017 -



So it's not all THAT crazy I guess.

This was on the map that Republicans were going crazy over saying the State Court "wildly overstepped it's authority" in striking down.

[Nyvin]

NC-2 is entirely within Wake County in both versions, so that's obviously a dem sink.  NC-12 is entirely in Mecklenburg County in both versions too, so same there.

In the second version, Orange and Durham are both entirely within NC-4, so that's another dem sink too. 

In the first version Durham is with a bunch of the black rurals in the northeast, so probably safe D.

Looks like a solid 11-3.

[Nyvin]

How are you all discussing maps when there's no picture and the link doesn't provide one either?

(If it does I'm not finding it, only text, I'll need a more direct link.)

Version 1 (the upper link): https://webservices.ncleg.gov/ViewBillDocument/2023/7447/0/DRS45377-ST-64

Version 2 (the bottom link): https://webservices.ncleg.gov/ViewBillDocument/2023/7448/0/DRS45378-ST-63

You can search county names on the description file and see which district they're in.

[Nyvin]

Senate Bill 756:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/30e0ad96-60aa-474f-ae99-492a1c410472

Senate Bill 757:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/7642e884-290a-4ab5-9986-96ad6baa2ebf

756 is a rock solid 11-3

757 is more like a 10-3-1

[Nyvin]

LOL, every single R district on 756 is between 41% and 44.8% Biden.

Surgical precision.

[Nyvin]

Senate Map:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/97807395-2c69-4ee7-82c8-3d159c2e8e2d

They conceded SD-19 to make SD-21 safe R.  Also they keep most of the country groupings, except a few in the northeast.

The cut that SD-8 makes into New Hanover is pretty dirty IMO.

[Nyvin]

Isn't the way that SD-1 and SD-2 drawn an easy Section 2 VRA violation?   That area would be so easy to consolidate into one black majority district and there's no reason whatsoever to go down the coast like that.   Even the county groupings aren't needed in that manner.

[Nyvin]

Isn't the way that SD-1 and SD-2 drawn an easy Section 2 VRA violation?   That area would be so easy to consolidate into one black majority district and there's no reason whatsoever to go down the coast like that.   Even the county groupings aren't needed in that manner.

Just for fun to follow up on this -

This map seems like a total VRA-Checkmate to the GOP's senate map in regards to districts 1 and 2.

SD-2 is black majority, districts are waaaaay more compact, I only changed four county groupings (1,2,5, and 11), and all district population deviation is kept below 11k (same as proposed map).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f0d3b37-ae67-4553-9635-0ddf0c52da9f

[Nyvin]

What's the constitutional petition process like in NC?

60% vote of approval in both leg. chambers in one session to get an amendment on the ballot (no gov veto).