Virginia HoD Redraw Thread - SCOTUS will not stop map drawing

[Nyvin]

Even if a died-down version of this map is released it would be a severe blow to VA Republicans, if not a death blow.

[Nyvin]

Ahead of special session, anti-gerrymandering group @1VA2021 announces new, bipartisan commission to craft constitutional amendment for 2019.

Includes constitutional scholar A.E. Dick Howard, former Dem leader Ward Armstrong and Ken Cuccinelli and others

The Democrats should reject a commission. It is highly probable they win the legislature in 2019 and can easily take advantage.

I just read their plan, that you can find there: http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?151+ful+SJ284S1

Basically a 7 members commission:
-One appointed by the Speaker of the House
-One appointed by the President Pro Tempore
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state senate
-One appointed by the minority leader of the state house
-The Auditor of Public Accounts (an office that is appointed by the governor)
-the State Inspector General (an office appointed by the governor)
-the Executive Director of the Virginia State Bar


It would need to follow some criteria: contiguous and compact territories etc etc

In order to be approved: it would need to get 5 votes and at least 1 from each party. In case it is impossible to have the 5 votes: the 2 plans that would have got the most votes would be sent to the Virginia Supreme Court and they would decided which one to implement.


So basically: THIS IS A SCAM PLAN!!!!!
1) Elected officials would still have big influence as they appoint 4 members and it's them who who appoint all the members of the Virginia Supreme Court.

2) Virginia republicans could literally sabotage it. They refuse to pass any of these plans and in the end 2 plans pass: a) one supported by the 2 republicans 2) one adopted by the 5 other members.

The VA supreme court would then decide to pick the republican plan as the VA supreme court is majority republican appointed.

There is absolutely zero incentive for VA dems to agree to this,  especially with a new House map potentially coming down the line.

[Nyvin]

If Democrats take over and they still really want to do a commission of sorts, they can do a lot better than the proposed commission posted above. That commission seems to have a backdoor for Republicans to get their plans implemented for the 2020s via a favorable state Supreme Court.

Any commission that is implemented should never allow Republicans to craft their own plan and get it into a situation where there is a 50/50 shot it is picked. That is bonkers!

It wouldn't even be 50/50...all the Republicans would do is deadlock the commission by refusing to give their 1 vote that's needed (even if the Dems have 5 vote otherwise) and then send the two plans to the State Supreme Court, which as Republican controlled would go to pick the Republican plan.   It's a scam to get Republican drawn maps without having control of the legislature.

The State Supreme Court seats aren't up until 2022, at least the ones that would flip control.

[Nyvin]

The Republican map affected 30 districts, while the Democrat's map affected 29.

[Nyvin]

The Republicans can have a fair map in Virginia when Democrats get a fair map in North Carolina...

[Nyvin]

Democrats must gerrymander Virginia to their own benefit after 2020. Stop talking about a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

no

Why not? If the Dems want to have any chance of keeping the house, such measures must be taken against an increasingly underhanded opposition. Should the Democrats really tie their hands behind their back in their battle with the GOP? I say no.

Trying to take the high road in this dispute will lead to us losing elections, and handed the GOP the House on a silver platter. We cannot let this happen.

I was mostly saying "no" to Solid saying "stop talking about nonpartisan redistricting commission." I mean, why? Why should we not talk about it? Solid can be partisan af sometimes and it can be off-putting, as he always talks as if that is THE way and everyone else is wrong and that is it, end of discussion. And I say this as a pretty partisan person myself.

I kind of like Gass3268's idea. I agree that unilateral disarmament is pretty stupid given Republicans seem pro-whatever-wins-them-elections, which has included voter suppression, court packing (and other judiciary-related power grabs) and insane levels of gerrymandering. Democrats need to take the gloves off and fight back until this fight is settled.

But let's be clear about something. As far as I am concerned, gerrymandering is election rigging. It's just fancier than stuffing ballot boxes or creative Jim Crow-like ideas. Gerrymandering constantly gets talked about as if it's just some normal event that we all hate but can't seem to stop. The reality is that it is greedy, corrupt politicians rigging elections so they can cling to power regardless of what the people want. It is something that belongs in 3rd world countries, not America. And the fact that we can't seem to end something so blatantly corrupt is just amazing.

This, so much this.

The unfortunate thing is that I suspect if Dems gain the trifecta, the pro-gerry side will outweigh the anti-gerry side. Incumbents in red seats like VA-07 want protection, passing reforms in VA take time as shown above, and this dem legislature has no problem with gerrys - see the Senate map.

I don't really see what good it does when it's "only" the democrats that want to give up power and end gerrymandering when Republicans everywhere just continue business as usual.   We already have commissions in states like California, Washington, and New Jersey....the only solid R state (that matters anyway) that has the same so far is Arizona, and that was through a ballot proposal. 

We have absolutely no guarantee that Democrats putting up commissions in states will encourage Republicans elsewhere to do the same.   Until they put out somewhere on their own I say push ahead with the D gerrymanders.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1053026724873678848

He's a professor at UC-Irvine and he did the 2015 redraw of the congressional map.

Great News!  Fully endorsed!

[Nyvin]

Dems just got their map for the Tidewater seats. Two reps in safe dem seats, and potentially more flips including the GOP Speakers. GG

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1087870131815018496

If I'm counting right (big if)

54 seats are lean to safe D

41 seats are lean to safe R

1 seat tilts D

2 seats tilt R

2 seats are tossup